Sneaky Picks for Wide Receiver Volume
Fantasy football is a game that’s all about volume. The number of opportunities that a player receives has a strong correlation with fantasy production. Wide receivers can’t catch the ball if they aren’t being targeted, and they can’t score touchdowns unless they’re touching the ball. So, we should all want the guys who are touching the ball the most and scoring the most. (Insightful, right?)
In the early rounds, it’s not hard to identify these types of players. We know who the fantasy superstars are, the dudes like Puka Nacua, Ja’Marr Chase, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba who rack up tons of catches and yards and touchdowns. But in the later rounds, we often lose sight of who the top targets are for each team. Maybe we write guys off because they didn’t have lofty touchdown totals the year before. Maybe we try to shy away from perceived “bad” offenses. Whatever the reason, we don’t always embrace the opportunity to snag target hogs on various offenses.
At the end of the day, you want teams’ WR1s on your fantasy squads, even the ones on perceived “bad” offenses. (Even “bad” offenses throw at least 400 times.) Number one wideouts are the guys with the easiest paths to targets and, consequently, production. Here at Hail Mary Football, we have put together a list of all of the WR1s who are going in the ninth round or later. We wrote a similar version of this article last year, and identified the following “volume” WRs who ended up vastly outperforming their ADP:
Chris Olave, Saints - 9th round ADP, finished as WR6 in both PPR and Half-PPR leagues. He had 100 receptions, 1,163 yards, and 9 touchdowns. If you drafted him in Round 9, you were probably one of the teams that made the playoffs in your league.
Stefon Diggs, Patriots - 9th round ADP, finished as WR17 in PPR leagues with 85 receptions and 1,000+ yards. We correctly predicted that he would see volume (over 100 targets) as Drake Maye’s WR1.
Michael Pittman, Colts - 11th round ADP, finished as WR18 in PPR leagues. We characterized him as the “easiest click in the draft” because before his down 2024 he had posted 3 straight seasons of finishing as a WR2 (top 24 WR). In 2025, he rebounded to form, posting another WR2 season, with 80 catches and a career-high 7 touchdowns.
Other hits last year - Khalil Shakir, Jauan Jennings, and Jakobi Meyers. They all had 9th round ADP and finished as top-36 WRs in PPR leagues.
We now have several years of data on our selections from these columns, and it confirms that our process is sound. If you spend a couple of your late picks on wide receivers who should be the #1 in their respective offenses, you have a decent chance of one of those guys hitting and giving you WR3 production (or better) at the position.
Players are generally not eligible for this list unless their ADP falls in the 9th round or beyond (subject to one exception, below). Remember, we are only looking at guys who, based on ESPN ADP (as of July 5), are the first wideouts drafted from their teams (i.e., the team’s perceived WR1). You should pounce on these players at their current price, as they should have ample opportunity to outproduce their draft day cost this season:
Christian Watson, Packers (Round 8/9). Watson has an ADP of 94.3 (1.7 picks below our threshold), but we are including him because he’s so darn close, and many of you are going to be able to get in him Round 9 of your leagues. Over the past several years, the Packers have had a congested WR room, but that’s no longer the case with Romeo Doubs in New England and Dontayvion Wicks in Philadelphia. Watson should see all the volume he can handle, assuming his balky hamstrings hold up. He finished as a top-5 WR in 3 of his final 7 games last year, and as a top-12 wide receiver in another one of those games. The talent is there. Oh, and the Packers evidently think so, too, as they just gave him a 4-year contract extension this offseason worth up to $110.5 million. You don’t give a guy that sort of coin if you don’t plan on feeding him.
Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars (Round 9). Thomas was WR4 as a rookie, but after a sophomore slump, his ADP currently sits at 100.2. This offseason, there has been a bunch of noise about his target competition in Parker Washington (WR1 each of the final 3 weeks last season) and Jakobi Meyers (the perennially-underrated WR whom the Jags acquired midseason last year via trade). Those players are both decent, but I’m going to side with the guy with first round draft capital who dominated as a rookie. You had to take him in Round 2 last year, but you can get him in Round 9 this year. Well worth the gamble for the upside alone. As Scott Barrett often says, “Upside wins championships.”
KC Concepcion, Browns (Round 11). He’s the most affordably-priced of this year’s first-round rookie WRs, with an ADP of 125.1. Concepcion is good at getting open, and targets should be ample in Todd Monken’s Cleveland offense. He only needs to beat out declining veteran Jerry Jeudy and fellow rookie Denzel Boston to sit atop the pecking order at wide receiver. Some might argue that second-year tight end Harold Fannin is a better bet for production, but I feel that Fannin’s skill set was a better match for the throws near the line of scrimmage that Shedeur Sanders favored. Early rumors are that Deshaun Watson is the front-runner for the Browns QB gig, which should favor the wide receivers more, as Watson is a more skilled passer.
Tre Tucker, Raiders (Round 15). I don’t love this pick, but I’m just following the process. Tucker is the first Raiders “wide receiver” being drafted, with an ADP of 168.9. But if our process has a blind spot, it’s that it ignores tight ends. Brock Bowers is, for all intents and purposes, the Raiders TE1, and he has an ADP of 23.6, snugly in Round 2. If I were targeting a Raiders tight end, I’d probably opt for free agent signee Jalen Nailor in this range of the draft.
Chris Bell, Dolphins (Round 15). Another “ick” pick, but we’re following the process. This is a rookie, coming off a torn ACL, who is going to what is likely to be a low-volume passing offense with Malik Willis at the helm. His ADP of 169.4 seems warranted, as he might redshirt the entire year. The point, though, is that there could be some value to be had in the Dolphins’ passing offense, as all of their players other than De’Von Achane and Willis are pretty much free. Keep your eye on some of the wide receivers who are still free agents, like Keenan Allen, Deebo Samuel, and Stefon Diggs. If any of them end up signing in Miami, they could be target hogs. Also, don’t be afraid to throw some late round darts at Greg Dulcich or Malik Washington. (Also, this could just be an offense where none of the pass-catchers return much fantasy value, so don’t ignore that possibility.)