Sneaky Picks for Wide Receiver Volume
Fantasy football is a game that’s all about volume. The number of opportunities that a player receives has a strong correlation with fantasy production. Wide receivers can’t catch the ball if they aren’t being targeted, and they can’t score touchdowns unless they’re touching the ball. So, we should all want the guys who are touching the ball the most and scoring the most. (Insightful, right?)
In the early rounds, it’s not hard to identify these types of players. We know who the fantasy superstars are, the dudes like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and CeeDee Lamb who rack up tons of catches and yards and touchdowns. But in the later rounds, we often lose sight of who the top targets are for each team. Maybe we write guys off because they didn’t have lofty touchdown totals the year before. Maybe we try to shy away from perceived “bad” offenses. Whatever the reason, we don’t always embrace the opportunity to snag target hogs on various offenses.
At the end of the day, you want teams’ WR1s on your fantasy squads, even the ones on perceived “bad” offenses. (Even “bad” offenses throw at least 400 times.) Number one wideouts are the guys with the easiest paths to targets and, consequently, production. Here at Hail Mary Football, we have put together a list of all of the WR1s who are going in the ninth round or later. We wrote a similar version of this article last year, and identified the following “volume” WRs who ended up vastly outperforming their ADP:
Nico Collins, Texans - 11th round ADP, finished as WR9 in half-point PPR leagues with 80 catches for nearly 1300 yards and 8 touchdowns.
Adam Thielen, Panthers - 11th round ADP; finished as WR17 in PPR leagues with 103 catches and 1,000+ yards. He was particularly useful over the first third of the season, with three top-5 weekly finishes amongst wide receivers.
Diontae Johnson, Steelers - 9th round ADP; finished as WR43 in half-point PPR leagues despite missing a quarter of the season. He was injured in Week 1 and didn’t return until after the team’s Week 6 bye. But from Weeks 7 through 18 (the final two-thirds of the season), he finished as a WR2 or better in nearly 60% of his games. That was useful production for many fantasy teams, especially considering he was used by most as a bye-week fill-in during that stretch.
We now have several years of data on our process, and the data confirms that our process is sound. If you spend a couple of your late picks on wide receivers who should see volume, you have a decent chance of one of those guys hitting and giving you WR2 production (or better) at the position.
Players are not eligible for this list unless their ADP falls in the 9th round or beyond. Remember, we are only looking at guys who, based on Yahoo! ADP (as of July 7), are the first wideouts drafted from their teams (i.e., the team’s perceived WR1). You should pounce on these players at their current price, as they should have ample opportunity to outproduce their draft day cost this season:
Diontae Johnson, Panthers (Round 9). The more things change, the more they stay the same. Johnson was the first name on this list last year, and he appears again despite giving really good production over the final two-thirds of the season. Johnson was shipped off to Carolina this off-season, and immediately slots in as Bryce Young’s WR1. That role led to WR2 production for Adam Thielen last season, and there’s no reason to believe that Johnson will not at least match Thielen’s production from 2023. At worst, you should be able to rely on him as a WR3.
Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers (Round 10). Everyone expects the Jim Harbaugh/Greg Roman offense to be limited in pass attempts. And while that’s probably true, it doesn’t mean they’re never going to throw the ball. Even Roman’s Lamar Jackson-led Baltimore Ravens offenses threw the ball at least 400 times each season. And, I mean, come on: the Chargers have Justin Freaking Herbert, who is a lot better passer than Lamar Jackson. Have a little faith. Even someone who gets a 25% target share in this offense is going to get 100 targets and probably catch 70-80 of them. Why not McConkey? This is a guy who posted a 2.54 yards per route run in college, and 3.26 Y/RR his final season (anything above 2.0 is elite), who ran a sub 4.40-second forty yard dash, and who has some of the best footwork you could ever hope to see. Why won’t he be the top target for Herbert? What, are you a believer in Josh Palmer or Quentin Johnston? Maybe Hayden Hurst? Come on. Herbert has lost his top 3 targets from years past in Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler. McConkey is gonna become his new best friend.
Courtland Sutton, Broncos (Round 10). Look, I’m not a huge fan of Sutton either. But the dude had double-digit touchdowns last year and he returns as the clear-cut top target in a Sean Payton offense. Don’t out-think the room. He finished as a WR3 last year, and is the only WR on the team assured of having a starting role in 2024. Yes, Russell Wilson is gone to Pittsburgh, but are you certain that Russell Wilson is an upgrade over Bo Nix at this point in their respective careers? Sutton may well be getting a QB upgrade! Pounce at this ADP.
Keon Coleman, Bills (Round 11). I’m an analytics guy, and the analytics on Coleman are bad. Poor Y/RR. Never had 800 yards in a season. Declining receptions and yardage after transferring from Michigan State to Florida State. Pick a reason, any reason. But the fact remains that he got decent draft capital, and now goes to a Bills team that lost its top 2 pass Catchers from last season in Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. With Josh Allen at the helm, this should still be a decent offense, but who is going to catch the passes? Right now, Coleman is going as pick 128, Curtis Samuel is going at pick 129, and Khalil Shakir is going at pick 130. So they’re all really tightly bunched together, and I won’t criticize you if you prefer Samuel or Shakir if you’re going to take a flier. One other option is just to punt WR on this team entirely and invest instead in Dalton Kincaid and James Cook, as there is a conceivable outcome where the passing offense is funneled through those players.
Ja’Lynn Polk/Demario Douglas/Javon Baker, Patriots (Round 12 or later). At this point, Polk and Douglas are going beyond Round 12 - essentially free. All of them are worth fliers. My favorite talent of the bunch based on predraft analysis is Baker, as he seems to be the only one with the skill set to stretch the field and act as a true X receiver. But the reports out of camp is that the current starting trio is projected to be Polk, Douglas, and KJ Osborn. Given the second round draft capital invested in Polk, he’s probably the safest bet of the bunch.
Bonus name: Calvin Ridley, Titans (Round 8). Technically, to qualify for this list, players need to be going after pick 96, which is the final pick of Round 8 in a 12-team draft. As of this writing, Ridley is going at pick 94.3, so he technically doesn’t qualify. But I’m throwing him out there anyway, because it’s pretty close, and by the time you read this his ADP may have fallen enough to where he may qualify. Ridley is getting up there in years - believe it or not, he turns 30 just a few days before Christmas - but it seems like he still has some gas left in the tank. He just got a mammoth contract from the Titans this off-season (4 years, $92M, $50M guaranteed), so you’d have to assume the Titans plan to use him heavily. New head coach Brian Callahan is expected to import Cincinnati’s offense now that he’s running the show in Tennessee, and that was an offense that was quite fantasy-friendly for wide receivers. In seasons where Ridley has played at least 15 games, he has never finished worse than a WR2. This is an extremely safe pick that comes with minimal cost and has considerable upside.