Sneaky Picks for Wide Receiver Volume
Fantasy football is a game that’s all about volume. The number of opportunities that a player receives has a strong correlation with fantasy production. Wide receivers can’t catch the ball if they aren’t being targeted, and they can’t score touchdowns unless they’re touching the ball. So, we should all want the guys who are touching the ball the most and scoring the most. (Insightful, right?)
In the early rounds, it’s not hard to identify these types of players. We know who the fantasy superstars are, the dudes like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and CeeDee Lamb who rack up tons of catches and yards and touchdowns. But in the later rounds, we often lose sight of who the top targets are for each team. Maybe we write guys off because they didn’t have lofty touchdown totals the year before. Maybe we try to shy away from perceived “bad” offenses. Whatever the reason, we don’t always embrace the opportunity to snag target hogs on various offenses.
At the end of the day, you want teams’ WR1s on your fantasy squads, even the ones on perceived “bad” offenses. (Even “bad” offenses throw at least 400 times.) Number one wideouts are the guys with the easiest paths to targets and, consequently, production. Here at Hail Mary Football, we have put together a list of all of the WR1s who are going in the ninth round or later. We wrote a similar version of this article last year, and identified the following “volume” WRs who ended up vastly outperforming their ADP:
Ladd McConkey, Chargers - 10th Round ADP, finished as a top-12 WR in half-PPR leagues. We predicted 100 targets and 70-80 catches for McConkey. He actually saw 112 targets and hauled in 82 of them.
Courtland Sutton, Broncos - 10th Round ADP, finished as a top-15 WR for the first time in his career. In promoting Sutton, we predicted that Bo Nix was an upgrade on Russell Wilson, which turned out to be true.
Calvin Ridley, Titans - A bonus name going at the end of Round 8, Ridley finished as a top-30 WR (i.e., a WR3) on the strength of more than 1,000 yards receiving. He likely would have been a top 24 guy with better TD luck, as he scored only 4 times in 2024. Improved QB play in 2025 is a reason to be optimistic on Ridley, who is going in Round 7 this year.
We now have several years of data on our process, and the data confirms that our process is sound. If you spend a couple of your late picks on wide receivers who should see volume, you have a decent chance of one of those guys hitting and giving you WR2 production (or better) at the position.
Players are not eligible for this list unless their ADP falls in the 9th round or beyond. Remember, we are only looking at guys who, based on ESPN ADP (as of July 6), are the first wideouts drafted from their teams (i.e., the team’s perceived WR1). You should pounce on these players at their current price, as they should have ample opportunity to outproduce their draft day cost this season:
Chris Olave, Saints (Round 9). I’m not sure if it’s a fear of injury or a fear of geriatric rookie QB Tyler Shough, but people are fading the Saints this year. That seems like a mistake. They should have a fairly narrow distribution of targets, with most of the volume going to Olave, Alvin Kamara, and Rashid Shaheed. With Kellen Moore now calling the offense, this seems like a no-brainer pick. Olave was a first round pick and is only 25 years old, and finished as a WR2 his first two years in the league before last season was derailed by concussions. I don’t have any problem spending a late pick on a guy who started his career with back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons.
Jauan Jennings, 49ers (Round 9). The former five-star recruit has finally emerged in San Francisco. Brandon Aiyuk got hurt, Deebo Samuel got old, and Ricky Pearsall spent much of the season getting up to speed after suffering a gunshot wound, all of which was the perfect storm to allow Jennings to see meaningful snaps and targets. He finished as a WR2 for the first time in his career. With Aiyuk still rehabbing an injury and Deebo Samuel shipped off to Washington, why should we expect any less in 2025? Jennings is just 27 years old and is still playing in a Kyle Shanahan offense. Even if he only returns WR3 value, this is a worthwhile selection.
Stefon Diggs, Patriots (Round 9). Is it age? Is it attitude? Is it hints of declining production on the periphery of his analytical profile? Or perhaps its his possession of what looked like drugs on his love boat excursion this offseason. Whatever the reason, the longtime standout at WR has taken a nosedive in drafts this offseason. But as Drake Maye’s WR1, he should see a decent amount of volume, assuming he’s back to full health. It feels like New England hasn’t had a fantasy-relevant wide receiver since Julian Edelman retired.
Khalil Shakir, Bills (Round 9). If I’m being honest, this is the only one I don’t feel good about. Shakir was mentioned in this column last year (alongside Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel, all of whom were going within 3 picks of each other in Round 11). I just don’t think Shakir is all that talented, and it’s hard to endorse a slot-only guy. But, the process is the process, and the process here is that Shakir is the first WR drafted for the Bills, and he was close to a WR3 finish last year (WR37 in PPR). He’s probably still a value in Round 9, but more as a bye-week filler type of guy.
Jakobi Meyers, Raiders (Round 9). This guy might seriously be the most underappreciated player in fantasy. Some guys are just never forgiven for their lack of draft capital. A former undrafted free agent, Meyers has carved out a really nice career. His fantasy performance has improved for 4 straight seasons, going from PPR WR30 in 2021 to WR28 in 2022, and then WR24 in 2023, and finally WR19 last year. In other words, you’re getting a WR2 at a WR5 price tag. And he’s arguably gotten a quarterback upgrade this year going from Gardner Minshew to Geno Smith.
Michael Pittman, Colts (Round 11). Michael Pittman is going, on average, at pick 122.3. That’s insane. This is the easiest click in the draft. Before last year, Pittman posted 3 straight seasons of at least 88 catches and 925 yards, always finishing as a WR2. He’s still in his prime at 27 years old, and will likely be catching passes from Daniel Jones in an RPO-heavy system, which tends to favor the first read. What’s not to like here? You’ll be elated if you get 90 catches out of your 11th round pick.