Early 2025 "Do Not Draft" List
Elsewhere in our draft kit, you can find our Early 2025 ADP values - the guys you definitely want at their current cost - and here we flip the script to the guys who are way overpriced, and whom you should avoid at their current ADP. We did a similar version of this article last season, and the results were pretty good. For example, we were down on Marvin Harrison at his second round price tag (18th overall), and he finished outside the top 25 wide receivers . We were down on Isiah Pacheco at his second round cost; he finished as RB63. Sure, part of that was due to injury, but he never finished better than RB16 in any single week, and he finished worse than RB30 in 5 of 7 games played. You did not get any ROI if you invested in Isiah Pacheco. We also faded CJ Stroud at his 4th round cost (ADP 41.0), and Stroud, despite staying healthy all year, finished as QB18.
Our best call may have been steering you away from Zamir White at his Round 6 ADP (66th overall). White lost his starting job and finished outside the Top-75 running backs. We also told you not to draft Justin Tucker as the first kicker off the board in Round 7, and Tucker responded by finishing outside the top 12 kickers for the first time in his career. We also warned you to avoid the San Francisco 49ers defense as the first defense off the board in Round 6; the 49ers finished as the 25th defense in standard leagues.
So, we’ve got receipts to back up our tAeKs. This season, I will not be drafting any of the following players unless their price drops significantly. Average Draft Position is taken from ESPN drafts as of July 31:
Saquon Barkley, RB, Eagles (Round 1, ADP 3.5). Barkley is awesome, ok? He’s awesome. But he’s coming off a year where he saw nearly 500 touches (482, to be exact). Other analysts have written about how guys that touch the rock 400 times tend to significantly regress the following season. But 500 times? It scares me off of him. Yes, it’s a bit of a cop-out to say, “I’m down on this dude because he could get hurt.” But in this instance, the math says he’s going to regress significantly. I wouldn’t be surprised if Barkley has a good year, but it would be a shock if he flirted with 2,000 yards again. That mark has only been hit 9 times in history, and before Barkley, only once in the past decade (Derrick Henry, 2020). If you can get Barkley later on, I’m ok with it, but 3rd overall is too rich for my blood. I’d much prefer Justin Jefferson or Jahmyr Gibbs at that spot (Ja’Marr Chase and Bijan are currently going 1-2).
Derrick Henry, RB, Ravens (Round 2, ADP 15.4). Nope. Same reasons I faded him last year, and I’m doubling down. Henry is perhaps the best pure runner of his era, and may be running behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. And, like last year, this call could bite me, because Henry may well lead the league in rushing touchdowns. But I am a process-oriented fantasy player. And my process is to fade RBs who are age 30 or older. Derrick Henry is 31 years old, and, like Barkley, had a heavy workload last year (386 touches including playoffs). Whether the decline is due to age or workload, it’s coming soon. I’m not comfortable investing an early second round pick given that sort of risk. Give me De’Von Achane, Brock Bowers, or Brian Thomas at that spot.
Bucky Irving, RB, Buccaneers (Round 2, ADP 23.5). Irving was stellar to close out the season last year. In December, he had 3 100-yard rushing games. He finished the year with 1100 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns. It was certainly a good rookie year. But I can’t shake my pre-draft evaluation of him. This dude is 192 lbs soaking wet, which gives me concerns over whether he can hold up to an NFL workload. He also had a speed score of 89.6. There just haven’t been a ton of dudes with sustained long-term success in the NFL with those metrics (i.e., undersized and slow). His PFF grades were good in college, though, and he had above a 10% target share as well, so maybe there’s hope. But with Liam Coen bolting town for Jacksonville, I’m not as bullish on the Tampa offense as I was at the end of last season.
James Cook, RB, Bills (Round 3, ADP 34.8). Consider this a bet against James Cook repeating his RB8 finish. It took him 18 touchdowns (16 rushing, 2 receiving) to get there, and I just don’t see him crossing the goal line that many times in 2025. He’s a prime negative regression candidate. This is a guy that had only 207 carries. That’s a touchdown every 13 touches, which just doesn’t seem sustainable. Also, for a guy that’s perceived as a “pass catcher,” he didn’t catch all that many passes - just 32 on 38 targets. That’s 2 catches per game, for those keeping track at home.
Davante Adams, WR, Rams (Round 3, ADP 36.4). W’re just doubling down here. I don’t use premium picks on assets over the age of 30. Adams is 32. His numbers have declined every year since 2022. Adams may have one more good season left in the tank, but I’d like to be a year too early rather than a year too late when bailing on aging players. If you want a wide receiver in this range, I prefer younger players like Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Garrett Wilson.
DK Metcalf, WR, Steelers (Round 5, ADP 50.2). If you wanna be the dude that banks on a wide receiver in an Arthur Smith offense, be my guest. AJ Brown was pedestrian in an Arthur Smith offense. So was Drake London. And those guys are both alphas. Metcalf is more of a high end #2, and now he’s catching passes from a 41-year old QB who loves to play at a slower pace than anyone in the league. Is Metcalf even gonna hit 1,000 yards? There are tons of WRs going later than Metcalf who I prefer to him outright, including Rashee Rice, Travis Hunter, Jaylen Waddle, Chris Olave, and Jordan Addison.
Jameson Williams, WR, Lions (Round 6, ADP 76.6). Jamo in Round 6? Are you kidding me? They lost their offensive coordinator, who might be the best play-caller in the NFL. They added competition for him in the draft in Isaac TeSlaa. Even if healthy, he is, at best, projected to be the 4th target on that team in the passing game, behind Amon-Ra, Gibbs, and LaPorta. And their offensive line took some hits in the offseason with the retirement of Frank Ragnow and the defection of Kevin Zeitler. This is a dude who WITH Ben Johnson barely got to 1,000 yards (1,001 yards exactly in 2025). Why do we think he’s gonna be better now that Johnson is gone? This is a guy who averages fewer than 4 catches per game. Huge projection here. I just have a hard time buying into a step forward for a guy whose offensive environment is arguably worse than it was last year.
Bo Nix, QB, Broncos (Round 7, ADP 79.3). Nix is fine, there are just a lot of guys going later that I like better: Brock Purdy, Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, Justin Fields, Caleb Williams, Jordan Love, J.J. McCarthy, C.J. Stroud, and Drake Maye. Nix had a decent rookie season, but I’m still not thrilled with his weaponry, and he plays in a tough division. Nix was decent in the touchdown department last year, but the yardage was lacking. He had only 3 games with more than 300 yards passing last season, and one of them was in Week 18 when the Chiefs were resting all of their starters. In fact, he had fewer than 250 yards passing in 11 of 17 starts last year, and fewer than 165 yards passing in 4 of them. If you’re taking Nix, you’re banking on him taking another step forward. I’m not yet a believer, especially as the QB8 off the board. He’s currently behind only Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, and Baker Mayfield.
Houston Texans D/ST (Round 8, ADP 96.1). Much like I warned you with the 49ers last year, we do not use premium picks on defenses. The opportunity cost is too great. Just stream your defenses each week instead. Do you really think the Texans are going to help you more than the guys going after them, like Chris Olave, Jordan Addison, and Brock Purdy? C’mon, man!
Brandon Aubrey, K, Cowboys (Round 10, 111.4). Repeat after me: I will not draft a kicker before the final rounds of my draft. I will not draft a kicker before the final rounds of my draft. I will not draft a kicker before the final rounds of my draft . . . . Use these premium picks on players who will make a difference for you. This is a much better range to take another backup running back, backup wide receiver, or starting tight end.