Bold Predictions for the 2025 Fantasy Season
Fantasy football, like many industries, is plagued by “conventional wisdom.” But conventional wisdom is often wrong. Going against the grain, at the right time, is how you win championships. Below are twelve “bold predictions” which, if they pan out, could steer your fantasy team toward a title this season. And if they don’t work out, well, there’s a reason these predictions were bold.
We had several laudable calls last year:
We predicted that Ja’Marr Chase would be the #1 wide receiver in fantasy points. Nailed it! Going into last season, Chase had never finished higher than WR5. But he finished 2024 as the Triple Crown Winner and #1 wide receiver overall.
We predicted that Travis Kelce would finish outside the top 5 tight ends. Kelce was still being drafted as the #1 tight end off the board, usually around the 2/3 turn. He finished the season as TE6 in half-PPR leagues. He didn’t kill you if you drafted him, but the opportunity cost used to select him at the 2/3 turn probably cheated you out of fantasy points you could have gotten if you had focused on another position.
We predicted that Drake London would outscore Davante Adams. At the time we made this prediction, Adams was getting drafted in the middle of Round 2, and London was being drafted a full round later. London ended the season as the fantasy WR5, with 230 fantasy points, and Adams was WR11, with 198 fantasy points.
We predicted that Jordan Love would finish outside the top 10 quarterbacks in fantasy scoring. This call was bold because Love ended 2023 as the QB5. Our advice was spot-on, though, because Love finished the season as QB17 (in 15 games).
We predicted that Rashee Rice would be a top-20 WR. Although he got injured early in the season, in every healthy game he finished as WR17 or better.
We predicted that Devon Achane would finish as the fantasy RB2. This was technically a miss, as he finished as RB5, but if you drafted him in Round 3 based on our advice, you were pretty happy with this bold take, as he vastly outperformed his ADP.
In short, we led you to difference-makers who helped you compete, and helped you avoid declining players who were overpriced. Here are our bold predictions for 2025:
George Kittle finishes as the TE1. Kittle is currently going as the third tight end off the board, as the very last pick of Round 3 in a 12-team league. I think that’s folly. Kittle has always crushed it when other 49ers’ pass-catchers are out. Going into 2025, the team has shipped Deebo Samuel off to Washington, Brandon Aiyuk is still rehabbing his ACL injury, and Jauan Jennings is hurt/angling for a new contract. Oh, and Ricky Pearsall isn’t very good. Although Christian McCaffrey is still on this team and the offense is expected to run through him, I expect Brock Purdy to look for Kittle early and often, especially in the red zone.
Tank Bigsby leads all Jaguars’ running backs in fantasy points. Travis Etienne is the first Jaguars running back off the board, and Bhayshul Tuten is the hot young name, but it’s Bigsby who is likely the most reliable piece in this backfield. Bigsby led the NFL last season in yards after contact (3.30 yards after contact per carry), which tells you it doesn’t matter if his OL is doing its job or not. Yeah, he doesn’t catch passes, but neither do Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry, and we’ve got no problem drafting those guys. New HC Liam Coen worked wonders with a midround running back in Tampa last year with Bucky Irving, and I’m betting he can do the same with Bigsby. The best part is, you don’t have to spend an early round pick on Bigsby. He can be had in the 12th round.
Justin Fields finishes as a top-8 fantasy quarterback. He’s currently going as QB13 in ESPN leagues, and that’s just disrespectful. Be mindful of the Konami code: QBs with high rushing floors are cheat codes for fantasy points. Fields has a high rushing floor. As written about elsewhere in this draft kit, Fields averaged more than 45 yards rushing in his 6 starts for the Steelers last year, and he had 5 rushing scores. That’s about 10 fantasy points per game before we even start considering his passing statistics. He’s got a very safe floor, and the upside for much more. Remember, in 2022 he finished as the QB7 - despite playing in only 15 games! - predominantly on the strength of his rushing abilities (1100 yards rushing and 8 TDs). Bear in mind that this is a guy who was a pocket passer in college, so there’s certainly the toolkit there for him to develop more as a passer. If you want to be the last guy in your draft to take a QB and you snap up Justin Fields, you’re going to be just fine at the position.
Isiah Pacheco is a top-15 running back. Pacheco is currently being drafted in Round 8, and I think he’s got a great chance to smash that ADP. Last season, you had to draft him at the 2/3 turn. He broke his leg in Week 2 of last season and you’re basically writing him off because of that. But the Chiefs didn’t really do anything to bring in competition in the draft or free agency (unless you’re a believer in Brashard Smith, which I’m not) and the dude he was splitting carries with last year, Kareem Hunt, is 30 years old and has looked gassed for a few seasons now. The Chiefs improved their offensive line this offseason with the addition of first-round LT Josh Simmons, and the offese should be more explosive as they get Rashee Rice back from injury and Xavier Worthy enters his sophomore campaign. If this offense puts up points in bunches - as any offense can with Patrick Mahomes at the helm - Pacheco should be a primary beneficiary. Assuming health, 1,000 yards and 8-10 touchdowns seems like a lock. You would be wise to target him as your RB2.
Jalen Hurts finishes top-2 in fantasy scoring. Hurts is currently going as the QB4 off the board, so this isn’t a huge leap, but it’s a leap nonetheless. He’s behind Josh Allen (round 2 pick), Lamar Jackson (round 2 pick), and Jayden Daniels (round 3 pick). I’m higher on him than all of those guys except Allen, and for one reason: Hurts is the only QB in NFL history with 4 straight straight seasons of 10 or more rushing touchdowns. You may not like the tush push, but it ain’t going away (at least this season). Barring injury, he should be a lock for another 10 TD season. He’s also gotten at least 600 yards rushing every year since his rookie season. Also, given the heavy workload to Saquon Barkley last year, I think they may have to throw a bit more this season, which could lead to more passing scores. Lots to like about Jalen this season, and I’m definitely drafted him over Daniels in Round 3, and passing on Lamar in Round 2.
Colston Loveland is a top-5 tight end. The arguments against Loveland: (a) rookie tight ends don’t produce and (b) it’s a crowded pass-catching corps. Both arguments are weak. Sam LaPorta was a rookie tight end in 2023 and finished as … *checks notes * … TE1. Brock Bowers was a rookie tight end in 2024 and finished as …. TE1. Loveland’s status as a rookie does nothing to dissuade me from taking him, especially since camp reports are that he has already passed Cole Kmet on the depth chart. The other argument, about there being a crowded pass-catching room… I mean, are we sure about that? Rome Odunze thus far has been a bust. We don’t know what Luther Burden is. And while I’ve always been a DJ Moore truther, the fact remains that he has ONE fantasy season in his 7-year career where he finished Top-15 at the position. Also, let’s not forget that Loveland is playing in the exact same offensive system (Ben Johnson’s) that made Sam LaPorta a star while also featuring a stud WR in Amon-Ra St. Brown. So don’t tell me it can’t be done. In “crowded” pass-catching corps, I’m going to bet on the guys I believe are the most talented. And I believe Loveland is the most talented. He came out of college as a true junior with an absolutely studly analytical profile. He had a Y/RR above 2.6 as both a sophomore and a junior, which is absolutely insane for a tight end. He had a collegiate Y/RR average of 2.39 - the only TE drafted from the P4 to even be above 2.0. And he had PFF grade above 85. There’s a ton to love about this kid. Plus, it doesn’t cost you much to find out if I’m right. Loveland is currently being drafted as the #12 tight end off the board.
Emeka Egbuka is the #1 rookie wide receiver. With all due respect to Travis Hunter, Tet McMillan, and Matthew Golden, Egbuka is my preferred receiver from Round 1. He’s one of the cleanest WR prospects I’ve ever seen: Five star recruit. Team captain. Good speed (sub 4.5 forty). Can play inside and out. All-time receptions leader at Ohio State and 2nd in yards (even more impressive for a school known for its quality NFL wideouts). PFF grade of 84, with best-season totals of 1150+ yards, 81 receptions, and 14 touchdowns (all while playing with other elite NFL talents like Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Jeremiah Smith). Oh, and he posted a 2.61 career Y/RR, better than Hunter (2.39), McMillan (2.37), and Golden (1.67 - yeesh!). The arguments against Egbuka are (a) crowded receiver room and (b) he was never the best receiver on his own team in college. The “crowded receiver room” argument is a dumb one, as I argued when analyzing Loveland, above. Plus, his “crowded WR room” consists of a 32 year old Mike Evans and a 29 year old Chris Godwin coming off an injury. I’m not worried. As far as not being the best receiver on his own team in college…. Justin Jefferson was considered inferior to Ja’Marr Chase. Brian Thomas was considered inferior to Malik Nabers. Ladd McConkey was considered inferior to Brock Bowers. They’re all balling out.
Kyren Williams finishes as a Top-7 RB. Williams is currently being drafted outside the top=10, and I don’t understand it. Are you guys worried about Blake Corum? Jarquez Hunter? The Rams just gave Williams a fat new contract - 3 years, $33 million - so I really don’t see Corum or Hunter usurping his role from him anytime soon. He finished as RB7 in PPR leagues in 2023. Then he did it again in 2024. What do you think is most likely to happen in 2025? Quit hating on the dude because he came into the league as a 5th round pick. He’s a legit talent, and Sean McVay likes to use him as a bellcow. This is a RB1 you can get in Round 3 of your draft.
Travis Hunter finishes as a top-20 WR. There are many folks scared off of Hunter because of concerns that he’ll split his time between offense and defense. Maybe he will. But early returns suggest his time on defense will be limited. He was with the offense during rookie minicamp. He was with the first team offense in the first preseason game. This dude is designed primarily to be an offensive weapon. It’s rarified air to be drafted in the top 5 as a wide receiver. You’re talking dudes like Andre Johnson, A.J. Green, Larry Fitzgerald, Ja’Marr Chase, and Calvin Johnson. Don’t overthink this. He’s currently being drafted as WR27, but should smash that ADP.
Baker Mayfield finishes outside the top-10 quarterbacks. Mayfield has been a fantasy darling the past couple seasons, including a finish as QB4 in 2024. As a result, he is currently going off the board as QB7 early in Round 6. That’s a hard pass for me. Mayfield ran hot in the passing touchdown department last year, and that’s generally not a sticky stat year over year. Yes, I believe in his weaponry, but I just think (a) Tampa will score fewer TDs this year and (b) a greater proportion of those TDs will be rushing scores. Ask yourself what is more likely to happen: is Mayfield going to toss 41 touchdowns again (when his previous career high wasn’t even as many as 30), or is he going to settle into that 22-to-28 range that he hit in 4 of the prior 6 seasons? If he’s only tossing 28 touchdowns, he’s not worth a pick in the sixth round.
Dylan Sampson finishes as a top-24 running back. This one is more just reading the tea leaves. Quinshon Judkins may not play this year due to his legal troubles, and Jerome Ford is a replacement-level talent. The Browns spent a 4th round draft pick on Sampson because of the lightning he can provide to their offense. Sampson was the 2024 player of the year in the SEC, so I think he’ll be up to the task. He was the youngest player in this year’s draft, and will still be just 20 years old when week 1 rolls around. If he can seize control of the starting job, the sky is the limit. We know Kevin Stefanski likes to use a run-heavy offense, so the opportunities for Sampson should be ample. Sampson isn’t being drafted until Round 14 of fantasy drafts, so he’s well worth a dart throw. The payoff could be huge.
J.J. McCarthy finishes as a top-10 quarterback. Yes, this is really bullish for a guy who is essentially a rookie, but hear me out. Kevin O’Connell’s system produces fantasy studs. In Kirk Cousins’ first year playing in Kevin O’Connell’s system, he was QB6. Last year, in Sam Darnold’s first year in O’Connell’s system, he was QB9. O’Connell was even able to coax viable fantasy starts out of midseason trade acquisition Josh Dobbs in 2023, who in his first two starts finished as QB5 and QB3. Do you think JJ McCarthy is better than Josh Dobbs? I sure do. To steal a stat from Thor Nystrom (@thorku on X): Michigan’s record the season before and the season after JJ McCarthy: 10-9. Michigan’s record in 3 years with JJ McCarthy: 40-3.