"Arguments Against" - The Case Against Some Top Rookies
Every season, there are rookies who catch our eye. We always like to invest in the shiny new toy. By and large, I’m in favor of this; uncertainty is often what can yield some of the greatest return on investment in fantasy football. But sometimes in our excitement to draft the new and unknown, we overlook some red flags that should, maybe, have scared us off some of these players.
That’s where the idea for this article was born. I wanted to have a place where I could record the “Arguments Against” some of these rookies. I wanted to be able to go back next year, and the year after that, and the year after that - assuming this becomes a yearly feature - and figure out which arguments against players actually mattered, and which ones were just noise.
So let’s take a look at ten of the most popular rookies in dynasty drafts and make the best arguments against these players that we can.
Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Panthers. Here’s what scares me about McMillan: if you look at his 2024 game log, it’s not all that impressive. Yes, he had 300 yards and 4 touchdowns in the opener. Cool. It was against New Mexico. I’m not sure I can name the last NFL player who came out of New Mexico. What else did he do the rest of the year? 2 catches for 11 yards against Northern Arizona. 6 for 50 against Utah. 5 for 38 against Colorado. 6 for 68 and a score against Arizona State. I’m just not all that jazzed up about inflated stats against Big 12 defenses and the Little Sisters of the Poor Community College. His 2023 line was more impressive against some better competition, if you want to give him the benefit of the doubt. Also, there is a video that circulated of him saying he doesn’t like to watch film. How you gonna be great if you don’t watch film? (To be clear, there are a lot of advanced analytics that make me really excited about Tet McMillan, but I’m trying to make the argument against him.)
TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Patriots. Henderson is undersized by NFL standards at just 202 lbs. Unsurprisingly, he has an injury history. He missed 5 games as a sophomore and 3 games as a junior. Can he hold up to an NFL workload? Also, he’s perceived to be a good pass catcher, but that’s not really borne out statistically. He had well below a 10% target share in college, and never had more than 27 receptions in any season (i.e., roughly 2 catches per game).
Quinshon Judkins, RB, Browns. Never been a full-time starter, always having shared the load with other NFL talents (Zach Evans at Ole Miss, TreVeyon Henderson at Ohio State). Not a great pass catcher. Not good after contact. Now mired in a legal dispute and hasn’t even signed his rookie contract. Is he going to wind up like Derrius Guice and have his legal troubles end his NFL career before it begins?
Colston Loveland, TE, Bears. Per Dane Brugler, only 12.5 percent of his catches in 2024 resulted in 20 yards or more. Is he just a short-area merchant? He’s also got an injury history, as he missed 3 games in 2024. He also had surgery and missed the draft process, so we don’t have testing numbers on him. He’s poor in contested catch situations (caught only 20% of those targets in 2024), and struggles to avoid tacklers after the catch. His counting stats leave a lot to be desired, as he had just 56 catches for 582 yards last season. Tyler Warren had almost as many catches and yards in 2024 alone as Loveland had over his entire collegiate career (104/1233 vs. 117/1466).
Jaxson Dart, QB, Giants. On the one hand, he’s a first round quarterback, and a general rule, I’m always going to snap up any first round QB who falls to Round 2 of a dynasty draft. But there’s certainly reason for trepidation, because he was pick 25 of round 1, and history has not been kind to first round QBs selected after pick 15. These are the guys who fit the bill this century:
2000 - Chad Pennington, Jets, pick 1.18 out of Marshall
2002 - Patrick Ramsey, Washington, pick 1.32 out of Tulane
2003 - Kyle Boller, Ravens, pick 1.19 out of California
2004 - J.P. Losman, Bills, pick 1.22 out of Tulane
2005 - Aaron Rodgers, Packers, pick 1.24 out of California
2005 - Jason Campbell, Washington, pick 1.25 out of Auburn
2007 - Brady Quinn, Browns, pick 1.22 out of Notre Dame
2008 - Joe Flacco, Ravens, pick 1.18 out of Delaware
2009 - Josh Freeman, Buccaneers, pick 1.17 out of Kansas State
2010 - Tim Tebow, Broncos, pick 1.25 out of Florida
2012 - Brandon Weeden, Browns, pick 1.22 out of Oklahoma State
2013 - E.J. Manuel, Bills, pick 1.16 out of Florida State
2014 - Johnny Manziel, Browns, pick 1.22 out of Texas A&M
2014 - Teddy Bridgewater, Vikings, pick 1.32 out of Louisville
2016 - Paxton Lynch, Broncos, pick 1.26 out of Memphis
2018 - Lamar Jackson, Ravens, pick 1.32 out of Louisville
2020 - Jordan Love, Packers, pick 1.26 out of Utah State
2022 - Kenny Pickett, Steelers, pick 1.20 out of Pittsburgh
I count 4 hits out of 18 (Rodgers, Flacco, Lamar, Love). I could be persuaded to count Bridgewater if you really pressed me. But basically, you’re looking at a 22-28% chance for Dart to even make it to a second contract with the Giants, the team that drafted him. I like Dart a lot and I want him to succeed, but the historical record for guys picked in this range is sobering.
R.J. Harvey, RB, Broncos. Red flag 1: He spent 6 years in college and will be 24 years old as a rookie. Red flag 2: He’s 5’8, 205, which is hardly ideal size for a feature back. Red flag 3: He’s new to the running back position, having started his college career as a quarterback. He really didn’t get serious playing time as a running back until his redshirt junior season in 2022, and at that time he wasn’t all that special. If you like him, you’ll note that he had nearly a 10% target share in college and had 69 missed tackles forced along with a 109.39 speed score, plus 38(!) rushing touchdowns over the past 2 seasons. But given the red flags, he’s more of a Round 2 dynasty pick for me than Round 1.
Matthew Golden, WR, Packers. 1.67 career Y/RR. Bottom-3 number in the class. Anything below 2.0 is usually a death knell for a player’s fantasy prospects. He also never had more than 625 yards in a season, and never eclipsed 8 touchdowns. Usually guys aren’t big touchdown scorers in the pros unless they’re big touchdown scorers in college. Usually guys don’t put up big counting stats in the pros unless they put up big counting stats in college. If Golden is a major fantasy star, he’ll be a massive outlier.
Kaleb Johnson, RB, Steelers. I loved Kaleb Johnson going into the draft process. But he was taken with the 19th pick of the third round (83 overall). Third round draft capital is, frankly, quite concerning. Here is a list of all running backs taken in Round 3 over the past decade:
2015 - Tevin Coleman, Indiana, by the Falcons (3.09, 73 overall)
2015 - Duke Johnson, Miami, by the Browns (3.13, 77 overall)
2015 - David Johnson, Northern Iowa, by the Cardinals (3.22, 86 overall)
2015 - Matt Jones, Florida, by Washington (3.31, 95 overall)
2016 - Kenyan Drake, Alabama, by the Dolphins (3.10, 73 overall)
2016 - C.J. Prosise, Notre Dame, by the Seahawks (3.27, 90 overall)
2017 - Alvin Kamara, Tennessee, by the Saints (3.03, 67 overall)
2017 - Kareem Hunt, Toledo, by the Chiefs (3.22, 86 overall)
2017 - D’Onta Foreman, Texas, by the Texans (3.25, 86 overall)
2017 - James Conner, Pitt, by the Steelers (3.41, 105 overall)
2018 - Royce Freeman, Oregon, by the Broncos (3.07, 71 overall)
2019 - Darrell Henderson, Memphis, by the Rams (3.06, 70 overall)
2019 - David Montgomery, Iowa State, by the Bears (3.09, 73 overall)
2019 - Devin Singletary, Florida Atlantic, by the Bills (3.10, 74 overall)
2019 - Damien Harris, Alabama, by the Patriots (3.23, 87 overall)
2019 - Alexander Mattison, Boise State, by the Vikings (3.38, 102 overall)
2020 - Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Vanderbilt, by the Buccaneers (3.12, 76 overall)
2020 - Zack Moss, Utah, by the Bills (3.22, 86 overall)
2020 - Darrynton Evans, Appalachian State, by the Titans (3.29, 93 overall)
2021 - Trey Sermon, Ohio State, by the 49ers (3.24, 88 overall)
2022 - Rachaad White, Arizona State, by the Buccaneers (3.27, 91 overall)
2022 - Tyrion Davis-Price, LSU, by the 49ers (3.29, 93 overall)
2022 - Brian Robinson, Alabama, by the Commanders (3.34, 98 overall)
2023 - Kendre Miller, TCU, by the Saints (3.08, 71 overall)
2023 - De’Von Achane, Texas A&M, by the Dolphins (3.21, 84 overall)
2023 - Tank Bigsby, Auburn, by the Jaguars (3.25, 88 overall)
2024 - Trey Benson, Florida State, by the Cardinals (3.02, 66 overall)
2024 - Blake Corum, Michigan, by the Rams (3.19, 83 overall)
2024 - Marshawn Lloyd, USC, by the Packers (3.24, 88 overall)
The first thing that stands out to me is that it’s not a very good hit rate. Over the past 10 years, 29 running backs have been drafted. Only six of them turned into star fantasy players (David Johnson, Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, James Conner), which is barely above a 20% hit rate. The rate rises to 31% if you count guys like Devin Singletary, Rachaad White, and Brian Robinson, who have been mildly useful-but-not-great fantasy assets. Still, it’s pretty grim. 7 or 8 out of every 10 RBs drafted in round 3 gives us next to nothing. And if you restrict the lookback window to only 5 years, i.e., since 2020, you’re really only seeing one hit: De’Von Achane. That’s 1 out of 12, just an 8% hit rate.
Now, if you’re a glass-half-full guy - and I try to be - you’ll observe that of the 6 hits over the past 10 years, all but Kamara (67 overall) were drafted later than Kaleb Johnson (83 overall). So maybe there’s some reason for optimism. But at the same time, we can’t ignore the fact that there were tons of busts (9, by my count, which is 1/3 of the sample), who were drafted earlier than Johnson and just didn’t give us useful fantasy production. We can’t ignore the math here. And the math tells us that, at best, Johnson has about a 20-30% chance of being a fantasy star.
Tyler Shough, QB, Saints. To be candid, I wasn’t a Tyler Shough guy before the draft - something about me is biased against QBs who spent 7 years in college - and the Round 2 draft capital genuinely surprised me. Given Derek Carr’s retirement not long after the draft, many speculated that Shough was the front-runner for the starting QB job. But I don’t know that we should get all that jazzed about a second round quarterback. Here are the quarterbacks that have been taken in Round 2 over the past decade: Christian Hackenberg (Jets, 2016), DeShone Kizer (Browns, 2017), Drew Lock (Broncos, 2019), Jalen Hurts (Eagles, 2020), Kyle Trask (Buccaneers, 2021), and Will Levis (Titans, 2023). That’s a dreadful track record. Over the past ten years, there is exactly ONE quarterback who started at least 30 games: Jalen Hurts.
And it’s not just a sample size problem. If you expand the universe of players to the past 20 years, you get guys like Kellen Clemens (Jets, 2006), Tarvaris Jackson (Vikings, 2006), Kevin Kolb (Eagles, 2007), John Beck (Dolphins, 2007), Drew Stanton (Lions, 2007), Brian Brohm (Packers, 2008), Chad Henne (Dolphins, 2008), Pat White (Dolphins, 2009), Jimmy Clausen (Panthers, 2010), Andy Dalton (Bengals, 2011), Colin Kaepernick (49ers, 2011), Brock Osweiler (Broncos, 2012), Geno Smith (Jets, 2013), Derek Carr (Raiders, 2014), and Jimmy Garoppolo (Patriots, 2014). You could maybe make a decent argument for Dalton and Carr as reasonable fantasy starters, especially in a superflex league, but it’s hard to advocate for any of the others. Jimmy G and Geno eventually became somewhat fantasy relevant, but years and years after their original owners drafted them. Round 2 is a landmine. History tells us that the Jalen Hurtses of the world are rarities. It’s easy to bet against Shough based simply on draft capital.WRs Kyle Williams, Patriots; Isaac TeSlaa, Saints; Pat Bryant, Broncos; Jaylin Noel, Texans; Savion Williams, Packers; and Tai Felton, Vikings. There are reasons to like each of these guys. But the third round historically has not been a place where we’ve seen a ton of fantasy stars, especially recently. Over the past 5 years, the only star fantasy players we’ve gotten out of those rounds are Nico Collins and Tank Dell (both of whom were drafted by the Texans’ Nick Caserio, so maybe that’s reason for optimism on Jaylin Noel). If you want to talk guys who are useful enough to be spot starters, you’ve got guys like Josh Downs, Jalen McMillan, and Cedric Tillman. But the rest of the list is pure garbage, mostly guys who aren’t even on dynasty rosters anymore: Lynn Bowden, Bryan Edwards, Devin Duvernay, Josh Palmer, Dyami Brown, Amari Rodgers, Anthony Schwartz, Velus Jones, Jalen Tolbert, David Bell, Danny Gray, Jalin Hyatt, Michael Wilson, Tre Tucker,, Malachi Corley, Jermaine Burton, Roman Wilson, and Luke McCaffrey. In other words, there’s a 75% chance that the guys drafted in Round 3 this year completely bust. There’s a reason they don’t get drafted until the latter half of your rookie drafts. It’s fine if you have a favorite among them, but don’t reach for them.