Don't Overlook Age When Drafting
If you scour the interwebs, surely you will find articles about how running backs decline at a certain age, and wide receivers as well. You should rely on your analyst of choice to determine when that “age cliff” occurs, but for me, I tend to avoid running backs who are 29 or older, and wide receivers 30 and older. Last year, we suggested that you avoid running backs like Raheem Mostert at ADP, and wide receivers like Tyreek Hill, Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham, Nuk Hopkins, and Brandin Cooks.
Below you will find some big-name running backs and wideouts who are above the magic age thresholds this season. Ages are listed as of the end of the season:
Running Backs
Derrick Henry, Ravens, 31. Given what he did last season, you fade Henry at your peril. But I’m fading him. The wheels have to fall off sometime. I’m sorry, I’m not spending a first round pick on a 31-year-old running back. I’m just not doing it.
Christian McCaffrey, 49ers, 29. McCaffrey missed nearly all of last season at age 28. He could rebound now that he’s fully healthy at age 29. Or maybe last year was the beginning of the end. You’ve got to decide whether you want to burn a 2nd round pick on a guy with the skill set to be the best player in fantasy, or if instead you’d rather invest in a younger model.
Joe Mixon, Texans, 29. Mixon had a career renaissance last season and ran hot in the touchdown column, but he’s already dealing with a foot injury this season. He’s sinking in fantasy drafts as a result, so if his price continues to drop precipitously, he may actually be a value.
James Conner, Cardinals, 30. Conner has never been the most reliable cat, but he did just sign a contract extension last year, so it’s likely that Arizona intends to continue to make him their featured runner. If you don’t think he can hold up, you should invest in Trey Benson instead.
Alvin Kamara, Saints, 30. If there’s one dude I’m not worried about on this list, it’s Kamara. He’s always been more of a pass-catcher than between-the-tackles runner, and that skill set tends to age more gracefully.
Aaron Jones, Vikings, 31. Jones turns 31 in December. He was never a bell cow sort anyway, and he was dreadful inside the 5 last year, so I’m not terribly optimistic about his chances at a RB1 finish this season.
Austin Ekeler, Commanders, 30. Ekeler looked done last year. He’s merely a third-down back at this point in his career.
Nick Chubb, Texans, 30. Chubb turns 30 a few days after Christmas. He looked gassed last season. Don’t buy into the narrative that he’ll lead the backfield in Houston if Joe Mixon is out. He doesn’t have much juice left.
Wide Receivers
Terry McLaurin, Commanders, 30. McLaurin turns 30 in September. Most people don’t realize he was an older prospect when he came into the league, so he’s hit age 30 quicker than it would seem. Scary Terry has one season - one - with double digit touchdowns. And that was last year. From 2020-2023, he never had more than 5 touchdowns. What is more likely - that he hits double digits again, or that he reverts (or declines) back to what he was? If you wear rose-colored glasses, you’ll argue that his TD spike came with Jayden Daniels, the best QB he’s ever played with. But if you’re risk averse, you’ll probably fade him and let someone else gamble that he won’t tail off once he celebrates his 30th birthday. Of all of the players on this list, he’s probably the one I’m most comfortable drafting at cost.
Tyreek Hill, Dolphins, 31. Tyreek seemed to hit the age cliff last year, and I’m not comfortable spending a top-3 pick on him. He’s got league-winning potential if he reverts to form, but given his decline last year, his rumored problems with Tua, and the Dolphins’ questions on the offensive line, there’s too much risk for me to invest.
Mike Evans, Buccaneers, 31. Yes, Mike Evans hit his record-setting 11th-consecutive 1,000-yard season last year. But they really had to force it to him to get him there (finished with 1,004 yards, including a play drawn up for him on the final play of week 17 to ensure he’d hit the threshold). But his 2024 was clearly a decline from 2023, going from 15.9 yards per catch to 13.6, and having more than 250 fewer receiving yards on the season. A similar decline this year would see him post just 750 receiving yards, which doesn’t do much for you in fantasy.
Courtland Sutton, Broncos, 30. Another guy that most fantasy managers will be surprised to learn is 30 this season. Sutton only has 2 seasons in his career with more than 1,000 yards, and one of them was last season. Is he really likely to repeat? I guess it depends on how much you believe in Bo Nix, and how much you are worried about his advanced age.
Calvin Ridley, Titans, 31. Ridley is 30 and turns 31 the week before Christmas. Since 2020, he only has 1 season where he has scored more than 4 touchdowns. He’s playing with a rookie quarterback and barely eclipsed 1,000 yards last year. Will Cam Ward elevate his play, or are his best days behind him?
Davante Adams, Rams, 33. Adams turns 33 on Christmas Eve. It’s hard to bet against one of the greatest wide receivers of all time, but every elite player eventually loses his mojo. It’s probably for the best for Adams that he gets to play second fiddle to Puka Nacua. I can see him getting lofty touchdown totals but seeing a dramatic reduction in the yardage and catches that we’re accustomed to seeing.
Stefon Diggs, Patriots, 32. Diggs turns 32 right after Thanksgiving. He’s coming off a torn ACL and he’s on a new team. He didn’t seem to be quite the same player before his injury with the Texans last year. He didn’t exceed 100 yards receiving in a single game, and has become more of a possession receiver than the alpha he used to be.
Cooper Kupp, Seahawks, 32. Kupp just can’t seem to stay healthy. He hasn’t played more than 12 games in a season since 2021. The Rams made no effort to keep him this offseason, instead opting to bring in (the even older) Davante Adams. At age 32, it’s fair to wonder if Kupp’s best days are behind him.