2026 Post-Draft Thoughts: Round 1

These are my draft notes. This has been one of the site’s more popular pieces over the last few years, and has become an annual tradition. These notes should provide context for the 2026 NFL draft picks - who was a reach, who was a value, and the scenarios that various teams had when they were making picks. Hopefully it will provide a handy reference point in future years. We’ll start with the first round.

1.01 - Las Vegas Raiders - Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana.  As expected.  Mendoza won the Heisman Trophy and a national championship, and it was a foregone conclusion that he would be the first pick in the draft.

1.02 - New York Jets - David Bailey, DE, Texas Tech.  Love this pick.  Bailey had the most sacks in FBS, was consistently disruptive throughout college, and was the #2 player on my board, behind only Jeremiyah Love.  This was a smart pick for a team that had needs everywhere, but desperately needed to juice its pass rush.

1.03 - Arizona Cardinals - Jeremiah Love, RB, Notre Dame.  THE BEST PLAYER IN THE CLASS.  Arizona didn’t *need* a running back with James Conner, Tyler Allgeier, and Trey Benson already on the roster.  But they took the only blue chip player in this draft.  Smart.

1.04 - Tennessee Titans - Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State.  My suspicion is that the Titans wanted Love, and when he wasn’t available, they had to pivot.  They lack firepower on offense and had to do something to help second-year signal-caller Cam Ward.  You can’t go into a season with Wan’Dale Robinson, Chimere Dike, and Elic Ayomanor as your top 3 offensive weapons and expect to win many games.  The problem is, I was lower on Tate than most.  I had a first round grade on him, but rated him well behind Makai Lemon and Jordyn Tyson.  Although he’s good, I graded him as the “worst” of the Ohio State wide receivers to come out in recent years (Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, JSN, Marvin Harrison, Emeka Egbuka).  Again, I think he’s a good player, but I thought he profiled more as a #2 at the NFL level, and 4th overall is really high for a number 2 receiver.  I acknowledge, though, that most scouts and film experts saw more in Tate than I did, so there’s a good chance I’m missing something to his game. 

1.05 - New York Giants - Arvell Reese, DE, Ohio State. Reese is another one who was more popular with the film guys than the analytics community.  Since he bounced back and forth between LB and DE, it was difficult to evaluate him from a stats-based standpoint.  The pick didn’t quite make sense from a “fit” perspective, either, since the Giants are already flush with edge-type players in Brian Burns, Kayvon Thibodeaux, and last year’s first round pick, Abdul Carter.  I felt they would have been better served grabbing a WR here to complement Malik Nabers, who is rehabbing a torn ACL, or an offensive tackle.  It would make life easier for Jaxson Dart in year 2.

1.06 - Kansas City Chiefs (via CLE) - Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU.  After trading away #1 corner Trent McDuffie pre-draft, the Chiefs give up 3rd and 5th round picks to move up 3 spots in Round 1 to grab the consensus top corner in the draft.  Delane was the #5 player on my board.  He was battle tested in the SEC, posting a 90.5 PFF grade.  Chiefs fans should be pleased with this pick.

1.07 - Washington Commanders - Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State. Styles is a great player, but this is a really curious selection for a team that has no pass rush, no second receiver behind the aging Terry McLaurin, no running game, and no secondary.  I’m not sure how much “better” they are in 2026 by using their first round pick on a linebacker, elite athlete though he may be.

1.08 - New Orleans Saints - Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State. Now this one makes a ton of sense.  The general draft consensus was that Tyson was best suited as a high end #2 receiver in the NFL, and he can be just that playing alongside Chris Olave in the Big Easy.  Tyler Shough now has a reliable pair of weapons as he seeks to make the leap in his second season. 

1.09 - Cleveland Browns (via KC) - Spencer Fano, OT, Utah. No secret that the Browns were remaking their offensive line, so this pick was reasonable from a value-meets-need perspective.  The concern with Fano is that he has arms below 33 inches, which is a hard cutoff for many teams.  But the thought is that Fano can overcome those shortcomings (see what I did there?) due to his supreme footwork, hand placement, and athleticism.  I’ll be curious to see whether Cleveland leaves him at his natural right tackle position or shifts him to the left side. 

1.10 - New York Giants (via CIN) - Francis Mauigoa, RT, Miami.  This pick made all the sense in the world.  Mauigoa was the best RT in the draft, and RT has been a gaping hole for the Giants for as long as I can remember. 

1.11 - Dallas Cowboys (via MIA) - Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State.  Downs was my #3 rated player in this draft class, so it is a steal to get him at 11.  He doesn’t have ideal size for the position, but he was productive from Day 1 in a Nick Saban defense at Alabama - one not known for playing true freshmen - and he didn’t skip a beat after he transferred to Ohio State.  This is exactly the sort of playmaker and leader that the horrendous Dallas defense needed. 

1.12 - Miami Dolphins (via DAL) - Kadyn Proctor, LT, Alabama. If you grade to the flashes, Proctor is the most dominant tackle in the draft.  But the flashes are just that - flashes.  Proctor was one of the most inconsistent tackles I evaluated, giving up far too many pressures and committing too many penalties. If he can clean up those issues, he could be a dominant force.  I do like how Miami is trying to shore up its offensive line for whatever QB they draft in 2027, because I really don’t believe Malik Willis is going to be the Dolphins starter for long.

1.13 - LA Rams (via ATL) - Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama.  Woof.  First really awful reach of Round 1.  I had a fourth round grade on Simpson.  He’s terrible under pressure.  He started only one year in college, which often leaves players underprepared for the NFL.  He had a college QBR below 81.5, which is a pretty meaningful cutoff historically.  And he’s old for a rookie, at 23.  He’s a former five star recruit and team captain, so I guess he had that going for him.  But this is way too rich for me. 

1.14 - Baltimore Ravens - Vega Ioane, G, Penn State. The Ravens’ biggest need was at guard, and the guy who most analysts thought was the best guard in the class fell right into their lap.  Value meets need.

1.15 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Rueben Bain Jr., DE, Miami.  This was a good bit farther than most draft gurus thought he would fall.  His production certainly warranted a higher selection.  I can only surmise that the sub-31” arms hurt him, as that’s well below most teams’ thresholds. As a general rule, many teams refuse to draft outliers with premium picks.

1.16 - New York Jets (via IND) - Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon.  This selection doesn’t make a lot of sense from a “fit” perspective.  The Jets just burned a second rounder on Mason Taylor last year, so tight end wasn’t a need. Conversely, they really don’t have any reliable wide receivers outside of Garrett Wilson (unless you’re a believer in Adonai Mitchell, which I am not).  I’m really surprised they passed on wide receivers like Makai Lemon, KC Concepcion, or even Omar Cooper.  

1.17 - Detroit Lions - Blake Miller, RT, Clemson.  After parting ways with longtime LT Taylor Decker, there were rumors that the Lions might move Pro Bowl RT Penei Sewell to the left side. It appears they were serious about that.  Blake Miller started a record 54 games at Clemson and is a reliable anchor for the right side.  This was a sensible, albeit predictable, selection for Detroit.

1.18 - Minnesota Vikings - Caleb Banks, DT, Florida.  Too high for me.  I had a 3rd round grade on Banks.  He’s a talented guy, but he’s got a problematic foot injury.  He also grades out poorly against the run, and is below-average as a pass rusher (per PFF).  More name than game at this point.

1.19 - Carolina Panthers - Monroe Freeling, LT, Georgia. Freeling was the top OT on my board, so I love the value with Carolina getting him as the 5th OT taken.  I didn’t realize that offensive tackle was considered a need for the Panthers, so the pick caught me off guard a bit, but I do love the value.

1.20 - Philadelphia Eagles (via DAL from GB) - Makai Lemon, WR, USC.  My favorite WR in this draft, and a top 5 player for me.  This likely signals the end of AJ Brown’s time in Philly, but this is a nice replacement over the long term. Lemon is a Biletnikoff Award winner (best WR in college football) who posts amazing Y/RR totals, and can play both inside and out.  This is yet another masterstroke by the Eagles brilliant General Manager, Howie Roseman. 

1.21 - Pittsburgh Steelers - Max Iheanachor, RT, Arizona State. Pre-draft, there were rumors that LT Broderick Jones had not recovered well from his neck surgery and that the Steelers were considering moving RT Troy Fautanu to the left side and drafting a right tackle.  Based on that, the selection of Iheanachor did not come as a shock.  However, it was a reach on my board.  Iheanachor is a toolsy prospect who has not quite put it all together yet. His PFF grades are subpar, but his athleticism is superb.  If he can be “coached up,” this winds up being a really good pick.  But he’s got to improve over what he was in college for this selection to really pan out.

1.22 - LA Chargers - Akheem Mesidor, EDGE, Miami.  I don’t like this pick from a process standpoint.  You’re going to burn first round draft capital on a 25-year-old?  Really? I wouldn’t have touched him before Day 2.  Mesidor is productive and can help them juice their pass rush, but will he even get a second contract from this team as he approaches his 30th birthday? Plus, he didn’t start to dominate until he was a sixth-year senior.  Is he going to be as productive once he’s matched up against players the same age as him?

1.23 - Dallas Cowboys (via PHI) - Malachi Lawrence, DE, UCF.  This pick legitimately surprised me.  I had heard rumors he was ticketed for Round 1, but I didn’t buy it.  Although Lawrence is a talented rusher, he is a complete liability against the run.  He seems more like a situational pass rusher than a full-time defensive end to me.  The first round is awfully high to be drafting a part-time player.

1.24 - Cleveland Browns (via JAX) - KC Concepcion, WR, TAMU.  Pour one out for KC Concepcion.  Love the player, hate the landing spot.  I don’t trust Cleveland’s QB room (Deshaun Watson, Shedeur Sanders, Dillon Gabriel) to maximize Concepcion’s talents. That said, the WR spots in Cleveland should be up for grabs, so there is a clear runway for Concepcion to see the field quickly and walk into 100+ targets.

1.25 - Chicago Bears - Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon.  Perhaps the best value of the first round. Thieneman was a top 10 player on my board, and he goes to the team with arguably the worst secondary in the NFL.  He should help rectify that immediately.  He had two straight years grading above 89.0 per PFF and can play single high deep safety or in the box, and is equally skilled at both. 

1.26 - Houston Texans (via BUF) - Keylan Rutledge, G, Georgia Tech.  I had a high second round grade on Rutledge, so I’m perfectly fine with the Texans spending a late first on him (although it’s a bit odd that they traded up to select a guard). Rutledge is a third-team All-American and a 2-time team captain. He posted the best short shuttle time among all guards in this draft class, falling just shy of the “magic number” of 4.47. Still, his 4.54 was good enough, and bodes well for his NFL future.  The Texans are doing a nice job rebuilding their offensive line this offseason.

1.27 - Miami Dolphins (via SF) - Chris Johnson, CB, San Diego State.  I let out an audible groan when the Dolphins traded up and made this pick, because I wanted this guy to fall to the Bengals at 41.  Excellent selection by Miami. Johnson should be a reliable corner for them for a long time.

1.28 - New England Patriots (via BUF from HOU) - Caleb Lomu, LT, Utah. I had a late first round grade on Lomu, so this feels right.  But does this mean that the Patriots have already given up on Will Campbell, last year’s #4 overall pick, at left tackle? Or is it Lomu that is in for a position switch?

1.29 - Kansas City Chiefs (via LAR) - Peter Woods, DT, Clemson.  I don’t get it.  This is a player who was always highly regarded, but who never really produced in college.  He’s perceived as the best 3T in this draft, but I think that says more about the overall state of the draft class than it does about how “good” Peter Woods is. 

1.30 - New York Jets - (via SF from MIA from DEN) - Omar Cooper Jr., WR, Indiana.  I had Cooper as more of a 2, but I’m not going to quibble with him going this late in Round 1.  I love the fit, as he complements Garrett Wilson’s skill set well in New York.  He brings run after the catch ability and should immediately compete for the #2 receiver job. 

1.31 - Tennessee Titans (via BUF from NE) - Keldric Faulk, EDGE, Auburn. Not impressed with this player.  Ideal size, but pathetic production.  This is a traits-over-production sort of pick, and those gambles infrequently pay off.  I’d be a little disappointed with the haul from Round 1 if I were a Titans fan.

1.32 - Seattle Seahawks - Jadarian Price, RB, Notre Dame.  Notre Dame fanboy here.  I’ve watched every snap Jadarian Price has ever played.  I am a big fan of the guy’s game and am excited to see him in the pros.  But he’s not a first round talent.  This draft pick is entirely because the Seahawks let Kenneth Walker leave in free agency while Zach Charbonnet was rehabbing a torn ACL.  The need was just overwhelming for Seattle.  This is a weak draft class at running back, so Price got pushed up on their board.  Pre-draft, I described Price as a poor man’s Kenneth Walker, so from that perspective, the “fit” makes sense.  And he adds a good bit more than Walker does on special teams, as he’s an elite return man. All in all, though, it feels like there was greater talent left on the board when Seattle made this pick.  They reached to fill a need.