2026 NFL Draft: The Overrated Prospects
Elsewhere on this site, I have posted my YA BOY list - those players who I believe are undervalued, and I am planting my flag on. But in this column, I’m doing the opposite. I’m calling out the players that I am lower on than consensus, and that I would shy away from at their current cost. You’ll see primarily guys projected to go in Rounds 1 and 2 on this list, as it’s difficult for a player to be overvalued if he’s not highly valued in the first place. (Is it really possible for a Day 3 pick to be overvalued?) So you will see a lot of popular names on this list. And yes, I understand that three years from now, some of these takes will look foolish. But I’ll at least give my rationale for why I would be avoiding these guys in the draft (at their expected cost) based on what we know now. Here are the prospects I think are overrated in 2026:
Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama
I just don’t see it. Yes, I understand he was a 5-star recruit and team captain. But other than that, I don’t understand the appeal. He’s old (23 on draft day). He’s terrible under pressure (sub-50 PFF grade when pressured and passing from a clean pocket). He’s only got 14 career starts, and the NFL has not generally been kind to guys who are that inexperienced. He’s got a QB rating below the “magic number” of 81.5. The first-round buzz is puzzling. The film guys may love him but the analytics guys most decidedly do not.
Omar Cooper, WR, Indiana
Look, I like Cooper. I do. But I see him more as a Round 2 guy than a Round 1 guy. He had a sub-22% target share in college. He didn’t break out until after his 21st birthday. Even playing with Fernando Mendoza, he failed to eclipse 1,000 yards in a season. He failed to average 50 yards per game in his first three seasons, and failed to average even 60 yards per game in his final season (usually at least 85 is the threshold). These are all red flags, and atypical of a first round profile. But if you like him, you’ll point to his 27 missed tackles forced in his best season, his Y/RR above 2.47 for his career, and his Y/RR of almost 3.00 versus zone. He had 30 plays of 20+ yards of his past two seasons and has demonstrated YAC ability. So there’s things to like here. It’s just not as clean of a profile as we typically like to see from first round prospects.
Denzel Boston, WR, Washington
Nope. Don’t care for this dude. I’ve got no use for fourth year breakouts whose “breakout” wasn’t even all that good. Never eclipsed 900 yards in college. Never caught 65 passes. Can’t really break tackles (8 missed tackles forced in best season). Never averaged 85 YPG in a season. His Y/RR vs. zone is below 2.0. I do not understand the first round hype.
Kadyn Proctor, LT, Alabama
This is another guy like Cooper. I like him, but I see him more as a Round 2 guy than a Round 1 guy. Proctor has freakish size, and if you grade solely to the flashes (as some scouts are trained to do) you see the most dominant OT in the draft. But with offensive tackles, my philosophy is that you are only as good as your consistency - and Proctor is anything but consistent. He has one of the worst success rates in this class (sub-94%), meaning he allows a ton of combined pressures and penalties. To his credit, he cleaned a lot of things up as a junior, and he’s an early declare who is entering the league at age 20 following a three-year career in Tuscaloosa where he started from Day 1 as a five star recruit. He’s had 18 consecutive starts without a holding penalty and has reasonable athleticism (8.75 RAS). So there are things to like. But can he maintain the consistency of 2025?
Keldric Faulk, DE, Auburn
Faulk has ridiculous size at 6’6, 276. But the dude just can’t rush the passer to save his life. He’s got a subpar 10-yard split at 1.68, which might help explain his inability to rush the passer. He had fewer than 45 pressures in his best collegiate season and only 13 sacks over his college career - both red flags. He can play the run reasonably well (85.5 PFF grade), but you don’t draft run-stopping defensive ends with first round picks.
Peter Woods, DT, Clemson
He’s projected as a first round pick, but I have a third round grade on him. He’s slightly undersized (sub-300 lbs.), slow (1.67 ten-yard split), poor pass rush grades (75.9), and mediocre pass rush production (20 pressures in his best season and 54 overall). The guy seems more hype than substance. I am confused as to why he is considered the best 3T in this class.
Brandon Cisse, CB, South Carolina
Cisse declined to participate in any athletic testing, which is always a red flag. We have no idea how good of an athlete this guy is, and the fact that he didn’t test suggests that he’s probably not a good one. He also had a best-season PFF grade of 75.2, which is a really terrible grade for a guy expected to be a starting corner in the NFL.
Aveion Terrell, CB, Clemson
Another dude with concerning measurables. Not only is Terrell undersized (5’11), but he’s also slow (4.64) and didn’t do enough athletic testing to develop a relative athletic score. Small and slow? No thanks. I’ve got no interest in corners who run above 4.5, but corners who are above 4.6 are a hard pass. That’s linebacker speed, not cornerback speed. That’s a tough profile to draft on day 3, let alone on Day 1.