2025 Post-Draft Thoughts: Rounds 4-7
This is a continuation of the HailMaryFootball draft notes. These notes provide context for the 2025 NFL draft picks: who was a reach, who was a value, and the scenarios that various teams had when they were making these picks. Hopefully it will provide a handy reference point in future years. We already covered the Day 1 and Day 2 picks. Here are our notes for the fantasy-relevant Day 3 picks. Occasionally, we have sprinkled in players at non-fantasy positions that we felt strongly about.
Round 4
Round 4, Pick 1 (103 overall) - Tennessee Titans - Chimere Dike, WR, Florida. Interesting choice for a team that is desperately in need of pass-catchers for #1 overall pick Cam Ward. I hope they’re not relying on this kid to be a starter. His production was pretty awful in college. He can play both inside and out, but his stats were lacking. He never had 50 receptions, 800 yards, or more than 6 touchdowns in college. He’s a valuable special teamer, though. He’s got experience returning punts and kicks, and also plays on the punt coverage team. He’ll provide value to Tennessee’s special teams units, but he’s probably well off the fantasy radar.
Round 4, Pick 2 (104 overall) - Jacksonville Jaguars - Bhayshul Tuten, RB, Virginia Tech. Love this kid. Runs like he’s shot out of a cannon. He has an *elite* 118.29 speed score. His 10-yard split was best-in-class among running backs, as he was the only back to be below 1.50 seconds. In addition, he saw a target share north of 10%. He’s also an outstanding tackle-breaker. And he lands with Liam Coen, who just made Bucky Irving a thing. As an added bonus, he can return kicks (29.8 yards per return and 2 TDs in 2023).
Round 4, Pick 3 (105 overall) - New York Giants - Cam Skattebo, RB, Arizona State. Skattebo was awesome in the college football playoffs, but then during draft season, rumors circulated that he had work ethic and attitude problems. It likely contributed to him tumbling to Round 4 of the draft. But he landed in a good spot, having only Devin Singletary and Tyrone Tracy as his chief competition. He’s got a three-down skill set, so he may contend for the starting job. The first-team All-American has good size at 5’9, 219. He led all draft-eligible running backs in receiving yards, and he was second in missed tackles forced. He’s worth a flier in the third round of dynasty drafts, and could be worth a dart in your redraft leagues.
Round 4, Pick 6 (108 overall) - Las Vegas Raiders - Dont’e Thornton, WR, Tennessee. Thornton is a speed demon who posted a Y/RR above 2.0 in each of his college seasons. The problem is, he did not play a lot of snaps. In a limited sample size he was impressive, and he should be the lid-lifter for the Raiders’ passing attack.
Round 4, Pick 7 (109 overall) - Buffalo Bills - Deone Walker, DT, Kentucky. This pick could be a steal. Walker, who is only 21 years old, has immense size (6’7, 340 lbs) and is a good leader (2x captain for the Wildcats). He graded out above 81.5 in both run defense and pass rushing. He was one of only 2 defensive tackles in the class with more than 40 pressures last year (Derrick Harmon was the other). If he can put it all together, he could be an absolute monster for the Bills.
Round 4, Pick 8 (110 overall) - New York Jets - Arian Smith, WR, Georgia. I must have missed something with this player. I did not have a draftable grade on Smith. He’s a fifth year senior who is undersized (179 lbs.) and was never terribly productive in college despite playing with a good quarterback at a major program. He never had more than 4 touchdowns in a season. He had a 15% target share and a 57.1 grade per PFF (worst in class). His best grades were as a freshman, and he has regressed since. I struggle to see the appeal of this guy, and do not understand why he was drafted at all, let alone this high.
Round 4, Pick 10 (112 overall) - New Orleans Saints - Danny Stutsman, LB, Oklahoma. I had him as my #3 linebacker in this draft, with a 2nd round grade. The two-time All-American should start for a long time in the league.
Round 4, Pick 12 (114 overall) - Carolina Panthers - Trevor Etienne, RB, Georgia. He ain’t his brother. The third-year junior is undersized (5’8, 202), not great at forcing missed tackles, and not a particularly dynamic pass catcher. I guess I have a problem with Georgia running backs whose older brothers were stars in the NFL, because I faded James Cook, too.
Round 4, Pick 14 (116 overall) - Houston Texans - Woody Marks, RB, USC. Yeesh. They drafted a 3rd down running back with a 4th round pick. Too high for me. I thought Marks was a mid-to-late Day 3 guy. He’s an excellent pass-catcher with decent size, but he’s a bit slow and is pretty old (24) for a rookie.
Round 4, Pick 15 (117 overall) - Los Angeles Rams - Jarquez Hunter, RB, Auburn. There were many in this draft cycle who adored Jarquez Hunter, but I wasn’t among them. I see a guy who is good at a lot of things but not truly elite at any of them. He’s the sort of guy who is probably an ideal #2 for an NFL offense, though I don't know if he’ll get that chance behind Kyren Williams and Blake Corum. If the guy above him gets injured and he’s asked to carry the load, he could probably be fantasy-viable. He’s got ok size (above 210 lbs), ok speed (104.99 speed score), ok athleticism (7.75 RAS), and is ok in the passing game (7.7% target share). If there’s one thing he’s better than average at, it’s forcing missed tackles, so that may be his path to relevance in the NFL.
Round 4, Pick 18 (120 overall) - Tennessee Titans - Gunnar Helm, TE, Texas. What do you do with a guy who looked great on film but who had a sub-5.00 RAS? Rumors circulated (along with a photo) after the combine that he had sprained his ankle. Do you rely on that explanation/excuse and trust the tape? Or do you simply refuse to invest in a tight end, for fantasy purposes, who scores that poorly as an athlete? For me, it’s a pass. Having no proof that the ankle injury was legit, I’m trusting the testing numbers. If he turns out to be a great fantasy asset, then I missed out. My process is not to draft tight ends who aren’t elite athletes. I’m ok with missing out on the occasional outlier.
Round 4, Pick 21 (123 overall) - Pittsburgh Steelers - Jack Sawyer, DE, Ohio State. How on earth did the rest of the NFL let this guy fall to the Steelers in Round 4? This is a Round 2 talent at worst. Five-star recruit, team captain, national champion. Back-to-back years grading above 87.0 in RDEF and above 82.5 in PRSH. Absolute steal for Pittsburgh. They had a heck of a draft. With their first four picks, they arguably got 4 starters: Derrick Harmon, DK Metcalf, Kaleb Johnson, and Sawyer.
Round 4, Pick 24 (126 overall) - Cleveland Browns - Dylan Sampson, RB, Tennessee. Some draftniks had Sampson with a second round grade, but that was always silly talk to me. The third team All-American and true junior was great at forcing missed tackles (70), but I’m not sure how well his 5’8, 200-lb. frame will hold up in the NFL. Then again, I faded Jahmyr Gibbs and Devon Achane for similar reasons, and that didn’t work out so well for me. Still, it’s hard to see Sampson getting the lion’s share of the touches absent an injury, because the team invested an early 2nd round pick in Quinshon Judkins.
Round 4, Pick 26 (128 overall) - Washington Commanders - Jaylin Lane, WR, Virginia Tech. Here’s another guy I missed the boat on. Several other analysts I respect had him graded in this range, but I just could not get behind it based on the statistics that matter to me. He’s older (23), small (under 5’10”), and slight of frame (191 lbs.). And he’s got amazing speed (4.34), which NFL talent evaluators always obsess over. On balance, though, I see a guy who never had 50 catches or 550 yards in a season in a P4 conference. His PFF grade was below 80, and he barely hit 2.01 yards per route run for his career. And that’s somewhat fraudulent production, as his Y/RR metrics are propped up by his first three years at Middle Tennessee State. In his final year at Virginia Tech, his Y/RR was just 1.77. He does bring some value as a punt returner so maybe that is Washington’s vision for his role.
Round 4, Pick 31 (133 overall) - Kansas City Chiefs - Jalen Royals, WR, Utah State. I love Jalen Royals and had a second round grade on him. The true junior hits the key metrics I like: double digit touchdowns in a single season, Y/RR of 2.0 (including a final season Y/RR of 3.0), PFF grade above 80, and sub-4.50 speed. And you couldn’t ask for a better landing spot with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid.
Round 4, Pick 34 (136 overall) - Tennessee Titans - Elic Ayomanor, WR, Stanford. There’s something to be said for being the first Stanford wide receiver since 2018 to have 1,000 yards in a season. There’s also something to be said for putting up nearly 300 yards and 3 touchdowns on Travis Hunter. He should have ample opportunity to compete for a starting role with the Titans, given that the guys ahead of him on the depth chart are greybeards like Calvin Ridley and Tyler Lockett. My concern with the third-year sophomore is that his Y/RR was below 2.0 for his career, and his PFF grade was below 76.0.
Round 4, Pick 36 (138 overall) - San Francisco 49ers - Jordan Watkins, WR, Ole Miss. Hard pass for me. I did not have a draftable grade on the fifth year senior. Ole Miss runs a gimmicky offense, and he did not exceed a 20% target share. His career Y/RR was below 2.0 and his PFF grade was 71.5. Not a lot to get excited about here.
Round 5
Round 5, Pick 6 (144 overall) - Cleveland Browns - Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado. Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Many people leading up to the draft thought that Sanders could be a top-10 pick. I was not among them. Shedeur got humbled a little bit by falling all the way to the 5th round, and was the second quarterback the Browns drafted, having snagged Dillon Gabriel in Round 3. For Sanders to be relevant, he’ll need to beat out Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, Deshaun Watson, and Gabriel. Not impossible, but he’s got his work cut out for him.
Round 5, Pick 9 (147 overall) - San Francisco 49ers - Jordan James, RB, Oregon. I don’t think he has an NFL body (just 5’9, 205), but he finds himself in a great situation. Christian McCaffrey is on his last legs, and Kyle Shanahan is just as much of a genius as his dad when putting together an efficient running game. The third-year junior posted a 91+ grade on PFF each of the past two seasons. It wouldn’t be shocking if he were able to put together some decent games in the NFL.
Round 5, Pick 12 (149 overall) - Dallas Cowboys - Jaydon Blue, RB, Texas. Do you have size thresholds, or not? Blue is very small for an NFL running back at 5’9, 196 pounds, but the kid can do it all. He’s fast - 4.38 forty at the combine, 4.28 at his pro day - and is a great asset in the passing game (11.3% target share in college, leading the nation with 6 receiving scores). He finds himself on a wide open depth chart in Dallas. Do you think Javonte Williams or Miles Sanders will hold this guy back from getting touches? Aside from CeeDee Lamb, Dallas has no playmakers. Blue is a playmaker.
Round 5, Pick 14 (151 overall) - Indianapolis Colts - D.J. Giddens, RB, Kansas State. Not surprised at all that Giddens landed with a team that prioritizes athleticism. The 4th-year junior posted an RAS of 9.89, which is 22nd among all running backs since 1987. He’s good at forcing missed tackles, is good in the passing game, and posted a PFF grade better than 83 for all 3 years of college. He is a necessary handcuff for Jonathan Taylor owners, as Taylor always seems to be dealing with some type of injury.
Round 5, Pick 18 (154 overall) - New York Giants - Marcus Mbow, G, Purdue. I had a late second round grade on Mbow, and believe he could be in the mix to start for the G-Men. This was good value. He played tackle in college, so that also gives him some positional versatility.
Round 5, Pick 22 (158 overall) - Los Angeles Chargers - KeAndre Lambert-Smith, WR, Auburn. One-trick pony who can get deep. I’m not terribly interested from a fantasy perspective.
Round 5, Pick 29 - Los Angeles Chargers - Oronde Gadsden II, TE, Syracuse. Third team All-American, team captain, and son of an NFL player. Gadsden had a Y/RR above 2.0 for his college career and a PFF grade above 83. This was a smart pickup for the Chargers, given the draft capital expended.
Round 5, Pick 30 (166 overall) - Seattle Seahawks - Tory Horton, WR, Colorado State. Pour one out for Tory Horton. I loved this dude, but apparently the NFL did not share my second round grade. He had a 3.45 Y/RR in his best season and a 2.49 for his career. He had best season totals of 96 receptions, 1144 yards, and 8 touchdowns. His YPG for his first three seasons were above 60 (above 50 is my minimum threshold) and above 90 in his best season. He can play both inside and out. He’s a wiry player who I believe fell in the draft due to an injury suffered his final season. If there’s a silver lining, it’s that he can play on the outside, and Seattle has primarily slot receivers on its roster (I’m looking at you, Cooper Kupp, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Jake Bobo).
Round 5, Pick 37 (173 overall) – Buffalo Bills - Jackson Hawes, TE, Georgia Tech. Blocking tight end. Ignore.
Round 5, Pick 39 (175 overall) - Seattle Seahawks - Robbie Ouzts, TE, Alabama. Blocking tight end, part 2. Ignore. Except pay attention to the dirty mustache.
Round 6
Round 6, Pick 3 (179 overall) - Miami Dolphins - Ollie Gordon II, RB, Oklahoma State. I was a fan of Gordon and am surprised he didn’t go a couple rounds higher than this. He’s a former first-team All-American, is only 21 years old, and has ideal size for the position (6’1, 233). His speed score was over 100 and he was just a hair below a 10% target share in college. He presents a different archetype than the other backs on Miami’s roster, and it would not surprise me if they envision him in the Raheem Mostert role (which, if you will recall, led to 18 rushing scores in 2023, including the goal-line rushes). Although I’m always skeptical of Day 3 prospects for fantasy football purposes, he could be worthy of a late dart throw, especially considering the potency of the offense.
Round 6, Pick 8 (184 overall) - New Orleans Saints - Devin Neal, RB, Kansas. I’m not sure how to feel about this guy. On the one hand, he’s a 5’11, 220-lb running back who was a team captain, had a target share north of 10%, and posted a 90.5 PFF grade. On the other hand, his speed score was below average, and it’s hard to figure out what is special about him. Plus - and this isn’t fair to the kid - it’s typically a good bet to fade guys who went to Kansas; it’s been a minute since one has made an impact. I do like his landing spot, though, as the Saints depth chart at running back is pretty bare behind the aging Alvin Kamara.
Round 6, Pick 12 (188 overall) - Tennessee Titans - Kalel Mullings, RB, Michigan. Dislike. I’ve got no interest in a fifth-year senior with a target share below 4%, especially one who isn’t great at forcing missed tackles. This is a practice squad-level talent. Surprised he got drafted.
Round 6, Pick 17 (193 overall) - Cincinnati Bengals - Tahj Brooks, RB, Texas Tech. Hmmm… now this one is intriguing. 5’9, 229 lbs. Team captain. Good pass blocker. Speed score north of 100. 58 missed tackles forced. And, per Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB on X), he had at least 95 rushing yards in each of his last 22 college games, which was the most by any FBS running back since Archie Griffin did it in the 1970s. He went to a Bengals team that has precious little depth behind Chase Brown, who was overworked last year. This pick is one to watch.
Round 6, Pick 34 (210 overall) - Baltimore Ravens - Aeneas Peebles, DT, Virginia Tech. He was one of my favorites this year: a slightly undersized (289 lbs.) defensive tackle who was a third-team All-American and can rush the passer with the best of them. He had a 91.2 pass rush grade and 93 pressures over his college career.
Round 6, Pick 38 (214 overall) - Los Angeles Chargers - R.J. Mickens, S, Clemson. I don’t understand the size concerns with this kid. He’s 6’0, 207, which is plenty big enough to hold up as a safety. He’s the son of a former NFL player, is a team captain, and has 3 straight years grading above 81.5, per PFF. He is the model of consistency. Nice late addition for LA.
Round 7
Round 7, Pick 11 (227 overall) - San Francisco 49ers - Kurtis Rourke, QB, Indiana. My bold call this year was giving Rourke a second round grade and adding him to the YA BOY list. He’s buried on the depth chart in San Fran, but I certainly expected him to start out as a backup no matter where he went. The 49ers are a fantastic landing spot. Kyle Shanahan can win with any quarterback who is accurate. And hey, Rourke got higher draft capital than starter Brock Purdy. Maybe there’s a shot? Maybe? A guy can dream.
Round 7, Pick 12 (228 overall) - Kansas City Chiefs - Breshard Smith, RB, SMU. The third team All-American is a great pass catcher but is undersized. He was the best-graded receiving back in the class, tallying more than 40 catches and 4 touchdowns. I’m wondering if the Chiefs might deploy him in the same way they used to deploy Jerick McKinnon. As an added bonus, he’s also a good kick returner, having posted an 86.5 grade in 2023 while at Miami.
Round 7, Pick 17 (233 overall) - Chicago Bears - Kyle Monangai, RB, Rutgers. The two-time team captain is gritty, but not special. He’s small (5’8), a subpar athlete, and not a great pass-catcher. It’s difficult to see him siphoning touches from D’Andre Swift or Roschon Johnson absent an injury.
Round 7, Pick 19 (235 overall) - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Tez Johnson, WR, Oregon. Apparently the NFL doesn’t think much of guys who are 5’9, 156 and run a 4.5. Still, Johnson was incredibly productive in college (90.5 PFF grade, best season totals of 86/1182/10), so it’s not out of the question that he gets an opportunity at some point. But he’s certainly a long shot, especially because he’s best in the slot, and the Bucs already have three other slot receivers on the roster in Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillan, and first-rounder Emeka Egbuka.
Round 7, Pick 22 (238 overall) - Seattle Seahawks - Ricky White III, WR, UNLV. Sigh. Pour one out for my favorite player in the draft. I already gushed over him in the YA BOY column. I’m crestfallen that he didn’t get better draft capital.
Round 7, Pick 29 (245 overall) - Washington Commanders - Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB, Arizona. Mentioning this one only because (a) the Commanders have nothing behind Brian Robinson and (b) Croskey-Merritt excels at forcing missed tackles. I don’t know that he’s worth a fantasy draft pick, but he’s certainly worth monitoring.
There were other wide receivers, running backs, and tight ends drafted on Day 3, but to be candid, I skipped over many of the guys whom I believed did not have much of a shot to have any sort of relevance in fantasy football.