2025 Post-Draft Thoughts: Round 1
These are my draft notes. This has been one of the site’s more popular pieces over the last few years, and has become an annual tradition. These notes should provide context for the 2025 NFL draft picks - who was a reach, who was a value, and the scenarios that various teams had when they were making picks. Hopefully it will provide a handy reference point in future years. We’ll start with the first round. You can find our analysis of Rounds 2 and 3 here.
Round 1
1.01 - Tennessee Titans - Cam Ward, QB, Miami. As expected. This was the worst-kept secret in the NFL for the past two months. The conventional wisdom is that Ward wouldn’t have been any better than the 4th or 5th quarterback in the 2024 NFL draft, but that’s not necessarily a criticism since 6 quarterbacks went in Round 1 that year. Ward was a no-star recruit who worked his way up to this selection, spending 2 years at Incarnate Word, 2 years at Washington State, and then having a magnificent fifth season at Miami. He never had fewer than 28 total touchdowns in a season, and had two seasons with 40+. Although he can be reckless, he’s a worthy #1 overall selection for a team that hasn’t had a franchise quarterback since Steve McNair.
1.02 - Jacksonville Jaguars (via CLE) - Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Colorado. The Jaguars traded a boatload of picks to Cleveland (including this year’s 1st and 2nd round picks and next year’s 1st round pick) to come up and take Heisman trophy winner Travis Hunter. The question surrounding Hunter is: can he play both sides of the ball at a high level in the NFL?
1.03 - New York Giants - Abdul Carter, DE, Penn State. This was heavily rumored in the weeks leading up to the draft. Carter was the consensus top pass rusher in what was perceived to be a draft lacking star power, so it’s not surprising to see the Giants go in this direction. The G-Men desperately needed a quarterback, but with no quarterback worthy of this selection, they wisely did not force the issue, and took the blue chip talent instead. (They later traded into the back half of Round 1 to address their quarterback issue.)
1.04 - New England Patriots - Will Campbell, LT, LSU. Campbell was an insanely productive collegiate player, but he falls short of the minimum arm length thresholds many NFL teams have for offensive tackles (his arms are below 33”). For that reason, this was a risky pick, and one I would not have made. He may end up proving me wrong, but I’m ok with that. I would never use a premium pick on outliers; process over results. It feels like New England was drafting for need rather than value here, as their OL was horrendous last year. Ashton Jeanty was the best player on the board, and the only blue-chip prospect left IMO. He should have been the pick. (Note: They did rectify their running back situation the next day, grabbing Ohio State’s TreVeyon Henderson early on Day 2.)
1.05 - Cleveland Browns (via JAX) - Mason Graham, DT, Michigan. Not sure what to think of this. I like Graham as a prospect. But with Jeanty on the board… what are the Browns thinking? Jeanty seems to be a surefire All Pro (if not Hall of Fame level talent). Could Graham be? Possibly. But he just seems like less of a sure thing than Jeanty. This was a real head-scratcher of a pick. I don’t mean to pooh-pooh Graham, as he’s a very good player in his own right. But as a prospect, he’s not of the same caliber as Jeanty. Hopefully for Cleveland’s sake he’ll turn out to be a better pro.
1.06 - Las Vegas Raiders - Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State. Great pick for an offense lacking an identity. New head coach Pete Carroll established his offense in Seattle via a power running game featuring Marshawn Lynch. It looks like he’s trying to recreate that magic in Las Vegas. Because there was not a quarterback or wide receiver worthy of a selection here, this was a smart selection by the Raiders. I don’t typically endorse taking running backs with first round picks, but this guy has LaDainian Tomlinson-level talent.
1.07 - New York Jets - Armand Membou, RT, Mizzou. Love this pick. Membou was my #1 offensive tackle in the draft. Very clean prospect. True junior who was dominant in the SEC and posted good grades on PFF and a good score in my success rate metrics. It was wise for the Jets to continue to fortify the trenches. They’ve quietly built a pretty good offensive line with Olu Fashanu, Alijah Vera-Tucker, Joe Tippmann, and Membou.
1.08 - Carolina Panthers - Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona. This was a sensible choice for the Panthers. They’ve spent top-50 draft capital on wide receivers 3 years in a row (Jonathan Mingo, Xavier Legette, and now McMillan), but you’ve got to keep taking stabs until you get it right. In my view, they have acquired the best pure wide receiver in the draft. Film scouts think he projects best as a high-end WR2, though I’m not certain I agree with that assessment, as his ceiling may be higher than that. I do like the fact that the Panthers continue to attempt to surround Bryce Young with weapons. This was a sensible choice for an offense in need of firepower.
1.09 - New Orleans Saints - Kelvin Banks, LT, Texas. This was a smart pick for a team that has struggled at offensive tackle since Terron Armstead left town. With Ryan Ramczyk’s retirement, this club had needs on both sides of the offensive line. Great pick where value meets need.
1.10 - Chicago Bears - Colston Loveland, TE, Michigan. Loveland is my top TE in this draft, so I love the pick. Although the Bears just extended Cole Kmet, Loveland and Kmet are different levels of athlete. Loveland should be the Sam LaPorta for Ben Johnson’s offense, as Johnson just came over as the head man in Chicago after serving as the offensive coordinator in Detroit for several years.
1.11 - San Francisco 49ers - Mykel Williams, DE, Georgia. Williams has prototypical size for a defensive lineman and was a true junior for a major college program. He played through an ankle injury in 2024 but his 2023 tape was much better. I’m not as high on Williams as many film scouts, but this certainly fills a position of need for a 49ers team that suddenly had a lot of holes on the defensive line.
1.12 - Dallas Cowboys - Tyler Booker, OG, Alabama. Terrible pick. I don’t care what he did in college. He’s tremendously unathletic (sub-4.00 RAS). If he succeeds, he’s a huge outlier. Not worthy of this high of a selection. With Zack Martin retiring, I suspect they intend for him to slide in immediately at the right guard spot, but this cat is no Zack Martin. I’m breathing a sigh of relief that he wasn’t there for the Bengals to take.
1.13 - Miami Dolphins - Kenneth Grant, DT, Michigan. I had a first round grade on Grant, but more towards the end of the round. Scouting reports suggest an inconsistent motor. Miami had a lot of greater needs than defensive tackle (such as LT and WR). They got a good player, but it felt just a tad high.
1.14 - Indianapolis Colts - Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State. Another one of the worst-kept secrets in the draft was that the Colts were in on the top tight ends. They lucked out, as one of the top two guys fell right into their lap. I love the player… but can Daniel Jones or Anthony Richardson get him the ball?
1.15 - Atlanta Falcons - Jalon Walker, EDGE, Georgia. The Falcons have needed pass rush help for about a decade and a half, so this pick is long overdue. There was significant chatter leading up to the draft that Walker could go in the top 10, so this feels like good value. Hopefully he fills the hole the Falcons have had at defensive end for years.
1.16 - Arizona Cardinals - Walter Nolen, DT, Ole Miss. Walter Nolen was the #1 recruit in his draft class, and had an outstanding junior season at Mississippi last year. He’s a bit undersized, but he’s a very good player. There was some chatter that the Cardinals “sniped” the Cincinnati Bengals with this pick, as the Bengals had several meetings with Nolen during the predraft process.
1.17 - Cincinnati Bengals - Shemar Stewart, DE, Texas A&M. Bungles gonna Bungle. Horrendous pick. Great athlete, terrible football player. There were TWO players on my board that I didn’t want the Bengals to draft this year, Tyler Booker and Shemar Stewart. And of course they wind up with one of them. This pick shows the utter incompetence of the Bengals front office. They’d be better off picking names out of a hat. I can’t describe how angry this pick made me. I hope they prove me wrong. Stewart has all the tools you could possibly want, but he’s raw. This is the “home run swing” sort of pick. If he connects, they’ve knocked it out of the park. But if he doesn’t, it’s a complete whiff.
1.18 - Seattle Seahawks - Grey Zabel, OL, North Dakota State. Solid pick for the Seahawks, who seemingly are always looking to improve their offensive line. Zabel can play all 5 OL spots but is best suited to the interior. I always have a bit of a concern when using premium draft capital on guys from FCS schools, though. The track record of players coming out of North Dakota State hasn’t been great (Carson Wentz, Trey Lance, Christian Watson, Cordell Volson, etc.).
1.19 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State. I am really high on Egbuka, but this is an interesting choice. Where does he play for them? He’s best in the slot, but so are Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan. Ah well, I’m sure they’ll figure it out. Good football player who is tOSU’s all-time receptions leader. In 2025, there may not be a lot of snaps for him. But with Mike Evans 31 years old and Chris Godwin coming off injury, it’s possible that it may be the Egbuka show in 2026 and beyond.
1.20 - Denver Broncos - Jahdae Barron, CB, Texas. Arguably the best corner in the draft not named Travis Hunter. Barron is undersized, but he’s still probably big enough to hold up on the outside, and he graded incredibly well in PFF’s metrics.
1.21 - Pittsburgh Steelers - Derrick Harmon, DT, Oregon. Pittsburgh shocks the world by passing on quarterbacks (their current QB1 is Mason Rudolph) and taking the most disruptive defensive tackle in the draft. This feels like a decade-long starter on their line. He was one of the best pass-rushing defensive tackles in the class.
1.22 - Los Angeles Chargers - Omarion Hampton, RB, UNC. Outstanding match between player and scheme. The Chargers love to run the crud out of the ball. Fantasy football managers everywhere rejoice. Pour one out for your Najee Harris shares. Hampton is an insane athlete and has a 3-down skill set.
1.23 - Green Bay Packers - Matthew Golden, WR, Texas. Reaaaaaaaach. I had a 3rd round grade on Golden. Dude has a terrible Y/RR and couldn’t beat out Sam Brown when they played together at Houston. No interest in this guy. Propped up because of a good run during the college football playoff. Green Bay will regret this pick. He’s undersized, he didn’t have great production in college, and there are rumors that his 4.29 forty at the combine was mistimed. He doesn’t play that fast.
1.24 - Minnesota Vikings - Donovan Jackson, G, Ohio State. Jackson played LT for Ohio State during their national title run, but he’s better suited to play on the interior. He generally graded out well at left guard, but his success rate plummeted in true pass sets. On balance, I like him, but he’s not a perfect prospect due to the pass set concerns just mentioned.
1.25 - New York Giants (via HOU) - Jaxson Dart, QB, Ole Miss. The Giants traded their 2nd and 3rd round picks this year and their 3rd round pick next year to Houston to get ahead of the Rams, who were rumored to be interested in Dart. This is a great landing spot. With Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston ahead of him on the depth chart, Dart will not have to be rushed into game action. Also, he’s going to be coached by Brian Daboll, who is one of the NFL’s modern QB gurus. This just feels like a good “fit” all around between player and team. And the last time the Giants used a first round pick on an Ole Miss quarterback, it worked out pretty well: Eli Manning led the team to two Super Bowl victories.
1.26 - Atlanta Falcons (via LAR) - James Pearce Jr., DE, Tennessee. The Rams traded out as soon as the Giants traded up, which suggests that Dart was their guy. The Falcons use this pick to select their second defensive end of the night, and this one is a huge character risk. All of the predraft chatter was that Pearce had serious character concerns, with several rumors of anger issues. He’s certainly talented, but if the rumors are to be believed, this pick comes with massive character risk. That’s too much of a gamble given all the future draft capital they had to give up to get this guy. They included next year’s first round pick in this deal.
1.27 - Baltimore Ravens - Malaki Starks, S, Georgia. Happens every year - the Ravens stay patient and a great player falls into their lap. They don’t draft for need, they just consistently hit doubles every year. They might have the best safety tandem in the league now with Kyle Hamilton and Starks.
1.28 - Detroit Lions - Tyleik Williams, DT, Ohio State. I had a high second round grade on him, so this is a slight reach for me, but not enough to be significant. He’s a massive, 330+ DT who graded well per PFF. He’ll fit in well in Detroit.
1.29 - Washington Commanders - Josh Conerly Jr., LT, Oregon. Washington trades for Laremy Tunsil to stabilize one side of their line, and then snags Conerly to stabilize the other. The strategy is clear: Protect Jayden Daniels. Conerly was the last tackle I had with a first round grade, so this is another good value pick.
1.30 - Buffalo Bills - Maxwell Hairston, CB, Kentucky. Hairston is fast, but he’s small and slight of frame. He led the SEC in interceptions as a junior and he is insanely athletic. Due to the size limitations, I had a second round grade on him, but I won’t nitpick with him going as one of the final three picks of Round 1. I question how he’ll hold up in run support.
1.31 - Philadelphia Eagles (via KC) - Jihaad Campbell, LB, Alabama. Howie Roseman finally breaks his streak of not drafting linebackers in Round 1. The Eagles gave up a fifth rounder to move up one spot with the Chiefs to select the consensus best linebacker in the draft. He’s dealing with a shoulder injury, but the expectation is that he’ll be ready to play in Week 1.
1.32 - Kansas City Chiefs (via PHI) - Josh Simmons, LT, Ohio State. I’m lower on Simmons than most analysts. His PFF grade was below average, his college tape was marred by penalties, and he’s coming off a very serious knee injury (torn patellar tendon). Most NFL athletes never return to form after an injury like that. He could pan out, but it’s just as likely that he’s never the same player that he was before. Huge, huge risk here for Kansas City, which has a gaping hole at left tackle that they are counting on Simmons to fill.