Draft Philosophy 101

Rules for Drafting. The Ten Commandments. Draft Philosophy 101. Call this article whatever you’d like, but understand that this is where we lay out the draft strategy you should employ if you want to win your league. Over the years, we have learned that this is the path that most often leads to success. And we’re here to help you succeed! So ignore these rules at your peril:

1. Avoid risk with your first four picks. The first four rounds are where you build the core of your team. These are the guys whom you need to produce to have a successful fantasy season. Especially in Rounds 1 and 2, you want guys that have both high ceilings and high floors. This season, that means you should zero in on guys like Bijan Robinson, Jahymr Gibbs, and Ja’Marr Chase, and fade guys like Derrick Henry (age/injury risk), James Cook (prime regression candidate), and Chase Brown (workload/touches seem certain to regress from last year).

2. Draft at least one running back in the first three rounds. There’s a marked difference in the running backs who are available early and the ones who are available late. There is no position that is at more of a premium than the elite running backs. As of the preseason ADP, Yahoo! projects 14 backs to go in the first three rounds, and you’ll need to snag at least one of them to be competitive at the position. Right now, those 10 are Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry, Ashton Jeanty, Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, De’Von Achane, Bucky Irving, Kyren Williams, Chase Brown, James Cook, and Breece Hall.

   After those dudes, the decline in talent is pretty steep. You don’t want Chuba Hubbard or James Conner as your RB1. You need to have at least one solid guy you can rely on to be a consistent point-producer at the running back spot. Make sure one of the 14 previously mentioned guys winds up on your team. My favorite targets in Round 1 are Bijan and Gibbs; in round 2 it’s Achane; and in Round 3 it’s Breece Hall. If you insist on waiting, I could be talked into Alvin Kamara, but at this stage of his career I really prefer him more as my RB2 than my RB1.

3. Draft 3 wide receivers in the first 6 rounds. We hear it every year: wide receiver is crazy deep. Except, it isn’t. It just isn’t. There are very few “elite” guys. And those guys are almost all gone by the end of Round 6. But if you load up early, you’re (a) going to have an advantage over your league-mates at that position (which is even more critical in a PPR format) and (b) you’re going to have depth when injuries and bye weeks hit. In leagues that don’t specify how many players you have to roster at each position, I do not tend to have backups at quarterback, tight end, kicker, and defense (you can always stream these positions during bye weeks); I have 2-3 backup running backs; and I reserve the vast majority of my bench for wide receivers. As we have discovered over the past several years through researching and writing the Weekly Hail Mary column, wide receiver is the most difficult position to stream. There are always useful quarterbacks and tight ends out there on the wire. And the attrition at running back due to injury means there are typically some useful players out there to fill that spot. But after the first few weeks of the season, there are rarely any useful wide receivers. And in most leagues, that’s the position where you have the most starting slots.
   So basically, you are going to need a deep bench to be able to weather your bye weeks and injuries, which inevitably strike in a violent game like football. Your plan going into the draft should be to put together a well-stocked stable of wideouts, which will be anchored by the 3 guys you’re going to draft in the first 6 rounds. And then you’ll just keep hammering at the position throughout your draft. You will find some of our favorite values elsewhere in this draft kit.

4. Wait on QB unless you can get a top rusher at a good price. There has been an odd trend in drafts so far this year: QBs are getting drafted higher than usual. In previous years, I advocated waiting on quarterback and being one of the last people in your league to take one. But with QB prices getting higher across the board, you can actually gain a decent edge drafting one of the top QBs with a high rushing floor. I still would never take a QB in the first 3 rounds, which means there’s no chance at getting Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson. But if you can get Jalen Hurts or Jayden Daniels in Round 4, you should be clicking that button every time. But do not - I repeat, do not - take a pocket passer early. I love Joe Burrow as much as the next guy, but taking him in Round 4 is bad process. It’s CJ Stroud all over again from last year. If you’re taking a pocket passer, it’s probably fine to wait until Round 8, and fill all of your other positions first (unless you’re in a 2-QB or SuperFlex league). Even if you’re the last guy in your league to take a QB, you’ll still be fine. The QB by ADP who is typically the 12th off the board is Brock Purdy. You can win with Brock Purdy! And if Purdy isn’t your cup of tea, you can get Dak Prescott. Or Jordan Love. Or CJ Stroud. Or Caleb Williams or Drake Maye, if you want to bank on a guy having a second-year breakout. Listen, folks: you can win pretty easily with Brock Purdy and a 2nd round WR (think Malik Nabers or Brian Thomas); it’s a lot harder to win with Josh Allen and a 9th round WR (guys like Jayden Reed and Deebo Samuel). Useful quarterbacks will last in your drafts; useful wide receivers will not.

5. Avoid the running back “dead zone.” The RB “dead zone” is the area of the draft where running backs historically are unlikely to return value. Historically, this occurred in Rounds 3-6, but, as JJ Zachariason has pointed out, it’s really more a cutoff point after RB 18 or so, rather than a specific point in a draft. The RB dead zone is the area of the draft where managers “reach” for running backs due to positional scarcity, and the players rarely deliver points commensurate with their draft slot. Conversely, the return on investment is pretty good in these rounds at wide receiver and tight end. So, really, this dead zone concept ties into Rule #3: Load up on wide receivers in the first six rounds. This season, I am trying to come out of the first six rounds with my Anchor RB, 3 wide receivers, Jalen Hurts/Jayden Daniels, and one of the top tight ends (Bowers, McBride, Kittle, LaPorta). If I’m not able to get one of my quarterback targets, I’ll likely pivot to a high quality second running back (that is, 1 of the top 18 or so). These are the running backs in my consideration set: Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry (who I’ll never get because I won’t touch him in Round 1), Ashton Jeanty, Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, De’Von Achane, Kyren Williams, Chase Brown, James Cook, Breece Hall, Alvin Kamara, Kenneth Walker, Omarion Hampton, James Conner, and Joe Mixon (assuming his health is cleared before my draft). I’m not taking Bucky Irving (perhaps wrongly clinging to my pre-NFL draft evaluation of him) or Chuba Hubbard in that range.
   Try to get your RB3 in Rounds 7-10. I like all of the remaining Big Name rookies in that area: RJ Harvey, Kaleb Johnson, TreVeyon Henderson, Quinshon Judkins. I’m also fine with older players like Aaron Jones and Tony Pollard in those frames, as well as RB2 types like Brian Robinson (great offense) and D’Andre Swift (potential for same). If you’ve got 3 starting RBs through Round 10, your team is probably in pretty good shape to weather injuries and bye weeks. Take a couple backups near the end of your draft.
   And don’t sweat it if injuries happen. There are running backs available all the time due to injury; just check out our Weekly Hail Mary column for advice on who to pick up that week. Running back, believe it or not, is one of the easiest positions to stream. Even mediocre talents can put up useful weeks when they’re getting fed 20 touches a game.

6. Don’t draft injured, suspended, or unemployed players. Ok, so I’ll admit, this is more of a guideline than a hard-and-fast rule, as what I really mean is “don’t draft injured or suspended players if you’ll need to rely on them.” If you’re drafting a hurt player with one of your last picks and you immediately toss him on IR and pick someone else up, I’ve got no problem with that.  What I’m trying to get you to avoid is using premium picks on players who won’t be available to you for significant chunks of the season.

   There are so few games each NFL season that every single one matters. You really can’t afford to go into a season relying on players who are sure to miss games. For this reason, I’m currently out on Joe Mixon. He’s got a foot injury, and there’s no timetable for return. I’m monitoring the Rashee Rice and Jordan Addison situations for suspensions. I’ll buy those players as my WR4s, but if they’re going to be suspended, it’s hard for me to get jazzed about them as starters (and I love the talent for both). I’m also closely monitoring the Quinshon Judkins domestic violence situation. It could be an opportunity to “buy the dip,” but this is also a guy that hasn’t even signed his rookie contract, as of this writing.

7. Try to get a difference-maker at tight end. Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, George Kittle, Sam LaPorta. You can gain a tremendous advantage on at least half of your league-mates by having one of those stellar point producers in your lineup. If I’m not getting one of those dudes, I’m probably the last guy in my league to take a tight end, and I’m streaming the position. Just focus on athletic guys tied to good quarterbacks. Mike Gesicki or Terrance Ferguson, anyone?

8. Emphasize youth, though not necessarily rookies, at the skill positions. It’s a young man’s game. And generally speaking, the players who tend to outperform their ADP are in their first couple years in the league. By a time a guy is in year 3 or 4, we pretty much know what he is. But rookies? Second year players? There can be value in the uncertainty; they’re often priced where they are because we don’t yet know what they are. Second-year players who did not have All-Pro rookie seasons often present the best values.

   This year at quarterback, I’m intrigued by Caleb Williams in Chicago, Drake Maye in New England, and JJ McCarthy in Minnesota. Williams won the Heisman Trophy and was the #1 overall pick. In the offseason, the Bears brought on Ben Johnson - one of the most brilliant offensive minds in the league - as his head coach. They also spent first and second round picks on pass catchers (Colston Loveland and Luther Burden), and fortified the interior of the offensive line. The arrow is pointing up. Drake Maye also has a better situation than he did as a rookie, with the addition of a competent head coach who maximizes the talent on his roster (Mike Vrabel), reinforcements on the offensive line (including #4 overall pick Will Campbell), and what should be an improved pass-catching corps with the addition of free agent WR Stefon Diggs, 2nd round RB TreVeyon Henderson, and 3rd round WR Kyle Williams. And JJ McCarthy is intriguing simply because he plays in a Kevin O’Connell offensive that just made Sam Darnold look competent. Oh, and getting to throw to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and TJ Hockenson ain’t too shabby, either.

   At wide receiver, this year I’ll be looking at Marvin Harrison and Rome Odunze. Last year, Harrison was going around pick 20, but this year, he’s going nearly 2 rounds later. He’s still the same ultra-talented prospect we all loved last year. And it appears the bloom is off the rose with Rome Odunze. He’s barely getting drafted in the top 100 picks, despite having all the same reasons to love him that we have for Caleb Williams. Let’s not forget that this guy went in the top 10 picks less than 18 months ago.
   At running back, it would be Tyrone Tracy. I’m decidedly not a Skattebro. Tracy proved last year that he can handle a starter’s workload, and it’s not like the Giants spent significant draft capital on Skattebo to compete with Tracy. Plus, early reports are that Skattebo is lazy and not a good practice player. If he doesn’t endear himself to coaches, he might not find the field. Tracy is going outside the top 30 RBs and has already shown us that he has pass-catching chops, which is what leads to the greatest points from RBs in fantasy. (For what it’s worth, I do prefer all of the top rookie runners to Tracy: Ashton Jeanty, Omarion Hampton, TreVeyon Henderson, RJ Harvey, and Quinshon Judkins).

   It would not be a surprise to see any of these guys take the next step forward into fantasy stardom. Given their relative cost, you’re probably better off taking them at ADP than some of the veterans at their same positions going at the same range. You know what you’re getting with the vets, so there isn’t much upside to them. These younger cats may have a bit more risk to their profile, but they also have substantially more upside.

9. Take your kicker and defense late, but before the last round of your draft. Thankfully, by now most savvy managers have abandoned the idea of taking kickers and defenses early. However, many have taken the strategy to the opposite extreme, waiting until the final two frames of the draft to grab their kicker and defense. Think that through, folks: if everyone in your league is doing that, where is the edge to be gained? Instead, I like to start this run in the third-to-last round of the draft and grab my kicker. If you get Brandon Aubrey, you’ve probably got a “leg up” (dad joke!) on your competition most weeks at that position.  All you’ve really sacrificed is a long-shot RB or WR, and the guy you’ll be taking in the final round at one of those positions is probably just as much of a long shot/lotto ticket.

   I say you’ll be taking your long shot RB or WR in the final round because in the second-to-last round you’ll be taking your defense. I’m definitely one who advocates streaming defenses, but nevertheless I still try to identify a defense that has a soft schedule the first few weeks of the season so that I might not have to drop that D right away after Week 1. If you’re taking your defense in the second to last round, and the rest of your league is waiting until the final frame, then again, you’re gaining an advantage. Little advantages like that add up in this game.

10. Scratch lottery tickets in the double digit rounds. This is basically the opposite of Rule #1. In the early rounds, you want high ceiling, high floor. In the later rounds, you want high ceiling, low floor. These latter rounds are where you do your gambling.

    Essentially, this Rule is similar to Rule #8. You want to be throwing darts at high-upside young guys, or guys in uncertain situations, in round 10 and beyond. These rounds present some of the best opportunities to get significant ROI compared to ADP. If these players don’t work out, who cares? Your opportunity cost wasn’t significant, and you can just cut bait and pick up another player off the waiver wire.

    So focus on young players with high upside. For example, if I’m drafting a wideout in the double digit rounds, I’m always opting for Emeka Egbuka (127.6 ADP) over DeAndre Hopkins (126.1). Nuk ain’t winning you your fantasy league these days. Egbuka might not either, but there’s a least a chance of it with him. Similarly, I’m taking Jayden Higgins (131.4 ADP) over Hollywood Brown. We know what Hollywood Brown is at this point (an undersized perimeter player who has a couple good games a year); we don’t yet know what Higgins is. What if he’s a star? I’m taking RBs DJ Giddens (ADP 223) over someone like Jerome Ford (ADP 149) every time. Ford isn’t taking over Cleveland’s backfield unless both Quinshon Judkins and Dylan Sampson are unavailable, but we know he’s going to be underwhelming even if he gets the lead role. Conversely, Giddens could emerge as a potential league winner if Jonathan Taylor’s pesky ankle gives him troubles again.

    The takeaway: Don’t waste valuable draft capital on marginal veteran talents. There’s no upside there. Instead, scratch lottery tickets in the double-digit rounds.

We can’t guarantee that you’ll win a championship if you follow these rules. But you’re going to be pretty darn likely to make it to the fantasy playoffs. Once you’re there, anything can happen.