Weekly Hail Mary: Week 6

Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary.  If you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer...  a prayer at winning your fantasy matchup, that is! 

Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big.  Think of it as a dart throw column.  These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn.  They are the lottery tickets who are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire.  We only choose from players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. Generally, we will be recommending no more than four potential streamers (and typically no more than three) at each position.  Last year, we hit at a 45% rate, which is really pretty darn good when you think about it, since we’re only choosing from the dregs.  Our (ambitious) goal is a 50% hit rate this year.   

Our determination of hits and misses is objective.  We use the following criteria to determine whether a player is a “hit”:

Quarterbacks - Finish in the top 12 among quarterbacks or score at least 16.8 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 12th-best scoring QB (Ryan Tannehill) last season. We use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.

Running Backs - Finish in the Top 36 among running backs, since most leagues start two running backs and a flex; or put up 8.15 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring RB (Chuba Hubbard) last season.  

Wide Receivers - Finish in the Top 36 among wide receivers, since most leagues start 3 WRs or 2 WR and a flex; or put up 9.9 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring WR (Van Jefferson) last season. 

Tight Ends - Finish in the Top 12 among tight ends, or put up 9.35 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 12th-best TE (Noah Fant) last season. Like with quarterbacks, we use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.

We hit on 4 of 10 recommended plays last week, for a 40% success rate.  This was our worst hit rate of the season, but we did absolutely crush it at tight end, giving you some guys who probably helped you win your week.   

Quarterback (16.8 points minimum)

1. Ryan Tannehill - MISS - Tannehill played turnover-free football, but mustered only 181 yards passing and a single touchdown.  It was just a nondescript game, resulting in just 11.54 fantasy points.  Thankfully, QB scoring was down across the board this week.  He was only about 5 points behind the #12 quarterback.  So if you started him, you were hurting too badly unless you went up against Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts.  

2. Andy Dalton - MISS - This one is so tilting.  The logic was sound, as the Saints had no trouble putting points on the board against the Seahawks.  But Dalton’s production was vultured (is that a thing with quarterbacks?) by “tight end” Taysom Hill, who had four combined TDs, including a passing score.  Dalton finished with just 10.88 points.  I had counted on a couple of those Hill touchdowns to go to Dalton.  Just a fluky game.  What can ya do? 

Running Back (8.15)

1. J.D. McKissic - HIT - The Hail Mary Football poster boy delivers yet again! McKissic had 5 catches for 37 yards, resulting in 8.7 fantasy points.  He’s a PPR cheat code.  Plug him in whenever you’re desperate; he’s as consistent as a cup of coffee. 

2. Caleb Huntley - MISS - 8 carries for 34 yards.  Tyler Allgeier saw more work, and Avery Williams vultured the touchdown.  Yeesh.  

Wide Receiver (9.9)

1. Zay Jones - MISS - 4.2 points on just 3 catches for 12 yards.  Really disappointing, especially considering the tasty matchup against the Texans. The Jaguars were flat this entire game. 

2. Robbie Anderson - MISS - Anderson had only 1 catch in this game, which went for 32 yards.  Matt Rhule got canned on Monday morning, so hopefully that means Ben McAdoo will be permitted to open up the offense a little more and air it out.  It’s criminal the way they’ve used Anderson, DJ Moore, and CMC thus far this year.  Throw the ball, people! 

3. Kyle Philips - MISS - 1 measly catch for 7 measly yards, and 1.7 fantasy points.  Really disappointing, especially considering Treylon Burks missed the game and the Titans were going up against a crummy Washington secondary.  Very surprised they couldn’t do more through the air in this one.

4. George Pickens - HIT - In Kenny Pickett’s debut, Pickens posted 14.3 fantasy points due to snagging 6 passes for 83 yards against a very tough Bills defense.  That’s very promising for his future prospects, especially as the schedule gets softer in a couple weeks.  

Tight End (9.35)

1. Taysom Hill - HIT - Victory lapping all over the place here! Hill wasn’t just a HIT, he was an ABSOLUTE SMASH!  If you started him, you won your week.  He had 3 rushing touchdowns, over 100 yards rushing, and a passing score.  The yardage and the touchdowns propelled him to 34.08 fantasy points, tops among all players this week other than Josh Allen, Austin Ekeler, and Leonard Fournette.  He even had more fantasy points than perennial stud Travis Kelce, despite Kelce also having a 4-TD day.

2. Hayden Hurst - HIT - Hurst found pay dirt in this one, finishing with 6 catches for 53 yards and a score.  His 17.3 fantasy points were Top 5 at the position for the week.  His rostership percentage is creeping upwards, though.  He’s rostered in 30% of leagues right now, and probably won’t be eligible to be one of our recommended streamers for much longer.  We won’t be recommending him this week as he faces off against the Saints, who are Top 3 against tight ends this season.  Thanks for the memories, Hayden.  It’s been a fun ride.  

Moving onto Week 6, below are the weekly Hail Marys.  As always, check the inactives lists on Sunday morning, as any player who is deemed “out” is automatically removed from streamer consideration. Here are our recommended streamers for this week:   

Quarterbacks

It’s a bad week for streaming quarterbacks.  With byes starting, and certain unfavorable matchups, there just isn’t really anyone I feel good about this week.  These are the best of an underwhelming bunch.

Baker Mayfield, Panthers (11% rostered).  Call me crazy.  And maybe I am.  But I think canning Matt Rhule is just the spark that this team needed.  Hopefully Ben McAdoo will now be given the freedom to air it out to DJ Moore, Christian McCaffrey, and Robbie Anderson.  The LA Rams aren’t the same intimidating defense that they were last year, and wide receivers have had success against them.  Carolina’s wideouts aren’t going to have success unless Baker does.  So I’m in on Carolina’s passing game, if only for one week.  But note that Baker is nursing an injury, so if he’s declared inactive or if they start PJ Walker, obviously you’ll want to remove him from streamer consideration. 

Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers (26%).  My only hesitation here is that Jimmy G was frequently a streamer last season and mostly let us down.  But he’s got a fairly soft matchup against Atlanta this week, who Tom Brady just torched for 350+ passing yards in Week 5.  Yes, I know Jimmy G isn’t Brady.  But he was drafted in New England to be Tom Brady Lite, so maybe he can give us 250 and a couple scores?  Please? 

Running Backs

J.D. McKissic, Commanders (27%). You knew this was coming.  Washington plays Chicago on Thursday night, and while I’m generally loathe to start players on Thursday games, this is a pretty thin week at running back, so you go with what you’ve got.  McKissic has had at least 7.8 fantasy points in every game this season.  He has a safe weekly floor.  Antonio Gibson is getting phased out of this offense.  Brian Robinson should take the early down work, and McKissic should be the 3rd down and 2 minute drill guy.  Expect what we’ve gotten almost every week so far: around 8-10 fantasy points.   

Damien Williams, Falcons (4%). ONLY IF HE PLAYS. But if he’s active, I think this is his backfield.  Cordarrelle Patterson is on IR, and none of the other Falcons backs were really able to get anything going on Sunday.

Eno Benjamin, Cardinals (10%).  ONLY IF JAMES CONNER SITS.  Conner hurt his ribs on Sunday, and Benjamin is the next man up if Conner can’t go.  If that’s the case, he should see volume, with fellow backup Darrel Williams also ailing.   Benjamin scored a touchdown on Sunday, and he faces the Seahawks’ tissue-paper thin run defense this week.  The Seahawks are bottom-5 in the NFL against the run.  

Bonus name: Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks (45%).  His rostership percentage exceeds our standard thresholds, but Walker is still available in more than half of Yahoo! leagues and should be the primary ball-carrier for the Seahawks now that Rashaad Penny is out for the season with a broken leg.  Arizona is in the bottom third of the league in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing rushers, so Walker may have some room to run here.  Plus, he’s a viable pickup for the rest of the season. 

Wide Receivers

We’re starting to reach the point in the season where wide receiver really thins out.  Over the first few weeks, there are many rookie wide receivers who emerge, or players who take a leap from the previous season, and are available on waivers.  Those guys get scooped up pretty quickly.  That leaves the waiver wire pretty thin.  It isn’t a position like running back, where you can just wait for an injury to hit and the replacement players see immediate volume.  At wide receiver, targets are earned, and there’s a reason the backup players weren’t on the field in the first place; they’re not as good at earning targets.  For that reason, wide receiver is always the hardest position to stream, and we’re starting to see that in the results now that we’re a quarter of the way through the season. 

Wan’Dale Robinson, Giants (6%).  ONLY IF HE PLAYS.  But he got in 3 limited practices last week before sitting out the London game.  The Giants are desperate for pass-catchers, and the Ravens give up more fantasy points to opposing wideouts than any other team in the NFL.  If Robinson plays, he needs to be in your lineup.   

Robbie Anderson, Panthers (16%). If I’m in on Baker, I need to be in on his pass-catchers.  The Panthers square off against the Rams, who allow the 2nd-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts.  My gut tells me Jalen Ramsey is on DJ Moore, so most of the passes will likely be funneled to Anderson and CMC.  I’m probably still in on Anderson even if PJ Walker is the starter for Carolina.

Tyquan Thornton, Patriots (1%).  He ran a pass route on more than 60% of snaps, per NBC Sports Edge, which was more than teammate Devante Parker.  He’s the deep threat in this offense; he’s really all the speed they have. Going up against Cleveland this week, it wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility to see him catch a long TD.  This is a true “Hail Mary” type play.  He’s not likely to rack up many receptions.  You’re banking on that long TD.  He’s probably more likely to goose egg you than give you a long score, if we’re being honest.  But this is a “Hail Mary” column, and that’s exactly the type of pass that Thornton excels at. The potential is there, and New England needs someone to emerge as a playmaker for this offense.  

Tight Ends

Will Dissly, Seahawks (18%).  Teammate Noah Fant is the more popular name, but it’s Dissly who is seeing more targets.  Dissly faces off against the Cardinals in Week 6, who are bottom-2 against tight ends.  Don’t be surprised if he finds the end zone. 

Evan Engram, Jaguars (24%).  Engram is one of those “ick” streamers because he’s just not very good at football.  But he faces off against the Colts on Sunday, who are bottom-5 in the NFL against the tight end.  Something like 5-for-50 could be in the cards against Indy.