Underrated Players in 2019 Drafts
Every year, there are bargains to be found in fantasy drafts, and this year is no different. Below are Hail Mary Football’s underrated players for 2019, based on where those players are currently being selected in fantasy drafts. ADP data is taken from Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Football as of August 8, 2019:
Keenan Allen (average Pick 31.1, third round pick in 12-team leagues). It’s difficult to find a more reliable fantasy player than Allen, when healthy. He’s has averaged almost 100 catches and 1,200 yards over the past two seasons, and plays with a reliable quarterback in a good offense. The only knock on him has touchdowns; he’s never had more than 6 since his rookie season in 2013. Still, touchdowns are fluky, and I’ll take my chances with a guy who is virtually guaranteed to touch the ball 100 times. He was going as a second round pick in 2018, and delivered with a similar stat line to 2017, yet somehow he’s fallen a full round. I’ll gladly scoop him up in Round 3 in my drafts, with an added bump in PPR leagues.
Devonta Freeman (36.7, third round). This is a guy who’s ADP has fallen solely because of last year’s injury. Out of sight, out of mind. Clearly we’ve forgotten how good this guy is. From 2015-2017, he averaged 1,450 yards from scrimmage, 54 catches, and nearly 12 total touchdowns per season. We’re writing that off just because he got hurt last year? Dude is still only 27 years old - he’s in his prime! I’m buying at his third round cost, and would strongly consider him in Round 2 among many of the backs going ahead of him, like Damien Williams, Marlon Mack, Derrick Henry, and Aaron Jones.
Kerryon Johnson (43.4, fourth round). Kerryon Johnson might be the most underrated back in this year’s fantasy drafts. This is a guy with RB1 upside. All of the buzz this offseason has been about how the Lions want to run the ball and play defense. The Lions have jettisoned their third-down back, Theo Riddick, which should open up greater opportunities for Johnson. Sure, they signed CJ Anderson in the offseason… the same CJ Anderson who spent half of last year out of the league. Kerryon, my wayward son, had a promising rookie year, racking up the Lions’ first 100-yard game in eons and averaging over 5.4 yards per carry. If Johnson is able to stay healthy in 2019, he could deliver second round value at a fourth round price.
Chris Carson (67.7, sixth round). Carson is another huge bargain in 2019 fantasy drafts. In 2018, he was fifth in the league in rushing yards (1,151) and seventh in rushing touchdowns (9). Those are low-end RB1 or high-end RB2 numbers. And he plays on one of the run-heaviest teams in the league. What are we afraid of - Rashaad Penny? The Seahawks have always been a team based on Petey Carroll’s mantra of “compete” - draft capital matters little. Carson is only 24 years old and is primed for another big season in the Hawks’ offense. He’s a fine selection as your RB2; he’s a league-winner as your flex.
Will Fuller (93.3, eighth round). Will Fuller, touchdown-maker. While Fuller’s crazy touchdown production over the past two years may, at first blush, seem unsustainable (11 touchdowns in 17 games), this isn’t something new for him. In college, he was a TD-maker as well, scoring 29 touchdowns in 26 games over his final two seasons at Notre Dame. This guy just has a knack for getting into the end zone, and he’s got a great rapport with Deshaun Watson. Draft him with confidence as a WR3 with upside for much, much more.
Marvin Jones (104.9, ninth round). Marvin Jones is about as safe of a WR4 as you could ask for - a WR4 with the potential to be a WR2, a bye week starter you can plug in without any heartburn. He’s a high-ceiling player. He has a season with over 1,100 yards receiving (2017); he has a season with 10 TDs (2013). He’s also a tremendous deep threat. Other than his rookie season, he has posted at least one catch of 35+ yards every season in which he has played. He’s also still relatively young, as he has not yet reached 30. There’s still plenty of upside here - take a shot on him in the ninth round of your draft.
Miles Sanders (118.6, tenth round). Second running back chosen in the draft. 1,274 yards rushing and 9 touchdowns in his final season at Penn State. 4.49 speed. Joining an elite offense that has lacked a RB1 in recent seasons. There are a lot of reasons to love Sanders. Although he probably isn’t going to give you much in the first month of the season, he’s probably the type of guy that can be a league-winner in the second half once he establishes a firm grip on the starting job, casting poor Jordan Howard aside.
Emmanuel Sanders (123.3, eleventh round). From 2014 (when he joined the Broncos) to 2016, Sanders was as reliable as a cup of coffee: 75+ catches, at least 1,000 yards, and at least 5 touchdowns. The past couple seasons he’s struggled with injury and ineffective QB play. He should be healthy this year, and Joe Flacco is the best quarterback he’s had since Peyton Manning retired. Say what you will about Flacco, but he was able to get productive seasons out of Anquan Boldin, Derrick Mason, and Steve Smith in the twilights of their careers. There’s no reason he can’t work the same magic with Sanders. And in the eleventh round, your draft capital is minimal to acquire him. If he can stay healthy, he should be a lock for another 75 catches, 1,000 yards, and 5-7 touchdowns.
Matt Breida (128.0, eleventh round). What does this guy have to do to get some love? Last year, he rushed for over 100 yards three times as the lead ball-carrier for the 49ers. Let’s remember that the QBs for the 49ers last year were primarily Nick Mullens and CJ Beathard, so it’s not like there was a significant passing game threat to take pressure off of him. And the dude has averaged 5.0 yards per carry for his career. Would it really be that surprising to see him, rather than Tevin Coleman (current ADP round 7) as San Francisco’s primary runner?
That’s all for this year’s underrated players. Our next column will focus on this year’s busts. Stay tuned!