23 Year Old Rookies: A Bad Omen at WR

We have long understood that there is a high correlation between early-declare status as a wide receiver and fantasy production.  Guys who enter the NFL after their third year of college tend to hit at higher rates than those who are fourth or fifth year seniors.  Players who were younger when they dominated older college competition tend to be more dominant in the NFL, as well.  

But is the opposite also true?  Is there a certain age for rookie wide receivers that makes them more likely to be busts?  It turns out, there is.  Based on my research, the magic number is age 23.  Wide receivers who enter the league after age 23 are very unlikely to become fantasy stars.  

Three disclaimers: 

(1) My dataset only goes back 5 years, so this is a limited sample size.  Take that for what it’s worth.  I will continue to monitor this trend moving forward to see if expanding the dataset significantly alters the results.  

(2) Some of these players have only played a year or two in the league, so there is still time for them to improve or break out. 

(3) You will notice that there are some moderate hits in the data.  The “Rule of 23” isn’t foolproof. There are outliers.  But, by and large, guys who have hit their 23rd birthday generally aren’t worth your time as fantasy assets.  

Now, onto the players. From 2021-2025, the following wide receivers were drafted after their 23rd birthday: 

2021: Damonte Coxie, Frank Darby, Simi Fehoko, Dez Fitzpatrick, Cade Johnson, Cornell Powell, Anthony Schwartz, Marquez Stevenson, Mike Strachan, Sage Surratt, Tamorrion Terry

2022:  Calvin Austin, Slade Bolden, Tanner Conner, Dai’Jean Dixon, Dontario Drummond, Ty Fryfogle, Danny Gray, Velus Jones, Jailen Nailor, Reggie Roberson, Braylon Sanders, Jalen Tolbert, Isaiah Weston

2023: Ronnie Bell, Jake Bobo, Tank Dell, Bryce Ford-Wheaton, Andrei Iosivas, Charlie Jones, A.T. Perry, Jayden Reed, Rashee Rice, Justin Shorter, Cedric Tillman, Michael Wilson

2024: Jacob Cowing, Anthony Gould, Ryan Flournoy, Lideatrick Griffin, Jha’Quan Jackson, Cornelius Johnson, Xavier Legette, Luke McCaffrey, Bub Means, Ricky Pearsall, Tayvion Robinson, Jamari Thrash, DeVaughn Vele, Malik Washington, Xavier Weaver, Jordan Whittington, Isaiah Williams, Johnny Wilson

2025: Andrew Armstrong, Ja’Corey Brooks, Efton Chism, Chimere Dike, Da’Quan Felton, Tre Harris, Traeshon Holden, Kobe Hudson, Daniel Jackson, Josh Kelly, KeAndre Lambert-Smith, Bru McCoy, Nick Nash, Isaiah Neyor, Xavier Restrepo, Will Sheppard, Arian Smith, Isaac TeSlaa, Jordan Watkins, Theo Wease, Antwane Wells, LaJohntay Wester, Ricky White, Savion Williams

Of these 78 players, only 1 posted a top-24 season (PPR scoring) among WRs: Michael Wilson. And he only did it once. 

If you expand it to top-36 seasons - i.e., a season where the player finished as a fantasy WR3 or better - the list barely grows.  Only 3 of those 78 wide receivers posted a top-36 season at the position: Wilson (WR10), Rashee Rice (WR27), and Jayden Reed (WR25, WR29).  And only Reed managed that feat twice. Coincidentally (?), Reed and Rice are two of the youngest players in the sample.  Reed was drafted on his birthday, the day he turned 23.  Rice had turned 23 less than a week before the draft.

In any event, the hit rate isn’t great for these older wideouts.  Only 1.3% of them finished a season among the top-24 wide receivers.  Fewer than 4% of them ever finished among the top-36 at the position.  

In summary, the data shows us that wideouts who were 23 or older at the time they were drafted have busted hard.  That means this year, you should think carefully before drafting the following players, all of whom had reached at least their 23rd birthday by the time they were drafted: 

  • Cyrus Allen

  • Skyler Bell

  • Malik Benson

  • Deion Burks

  • Josh Cameron

  • C.J. Daniels

  • Bryce Lance

  • Eric Rivers

  • Anthony Smith

  • De’Zhaun Stribling

  • Jalen Walthall

  • Kaden Wetjen

  • Colbie Young

Of these names, Cyrus Allen (Chiefs) and De’Zhaun Stribling (49ers) have been generating the most training camp buzz.  Skyler Bell (Bills) and Bryce Lance (Saints) were popular dynasty picks in the middle rounds. I’m not saying you should not draft those players.  But I am cautioning you to consider the risk. Perhaps one of these guys is an outlier like Reed, Rice, or Wilson.  But statistically, the odds are stacked against any of these players ever becoming a meaningful fantasy contributor.


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