Why Draft Capital Matters

When playing fantasy football, it is often tempting to think in terms of IKB: “I know better.” We like to think we know more than NFL talent evaluators, based on the games we’ve watched, the articles we’ve read, and the opinions we’ve heard. But the truth of the matter is that NFL executives are generally pretty good at their jobs. They are far from perfect, but collectively, when it comes to the draft, they get a lot of things right. The players that they choose in Round 1 are, on average, better than the players that they choose in Round 2, who in turn are better than the players that they choose in Round 3.

We can use that to our advantage for fantasy purposes. NFL draft capital matters. It tells a lot about how likely a player is to be “good” in the NFL. The players who are selected earlier in the draft have a much higher success rate than players who are taken later in the draft. Elsewhere in this Draft Kit, we have discussed how you should focus on top-50 NFL draft picks at the skill positions (RB, WR, and TE), and fade players selected at picks 51-100. When deciding between two players, you should almost always choose the top-50 draft pick over the guy taken late round 2 or anywhere in Round 3.

The purpose of this article is to give the “why” behind that advice. We’re going to take a deep dive and look at all skill position players selected in the top-100 of the previous 5 NFL drafts (2021-2025), and focus on their fantasy average draft position (ADP) heading into the 2026 season. ADP is generally a good metric to determine whether the player is viewed as a fantasy “starter” for the upcoming season. All ADP is taken from Sleeper as of July 28, 2026, and is based upon a half-point PPR league.

For purposes of this exercise, we will define a draft pick as a hit if he is being drafted in the top 7 rounds, as that would constitute a starter in most leagues (i.e., leagues that start at least 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, and 1 Flex). Using those parameters, here’s what the data tells us:

• 12 running backs were taken in the top 50 draft picks over the previous 5 drafts. Based on this year’s ADP, 83% of those running backs (10 out of 12) are viewed as fantasy starters (that is, they are being drafted in the top 7 rounds). The only two who don’t qualify are Jonathon Brooks, who has been hurt most of his career, and Najee Harris, who was regularly drafted inside the top 7 rounds during the entirety of his rookie contract with Pittsburgh. If you include Harris as a hit, the recent data shows us that RBs have an 87% chance of being a fantasy starter if drafted within the top 50 NFL draft picks.

• 15 running backs were selected in picks 51-100 in that same timespan. Of those players, only three are being drafted as fantasy starters: James Cook, De’Von Achane, and R.J. Harvey. That is a 20% hit rate. In other words, running backs drafted in the top-50 picks are more than 4x more likely to become fantasy starters than backs drafted in next 50 picks. Even more startling is the extremely poor track record of running backs taken in Round 3. Only 1 third-round running back from the past 5 NFL Drafts is currently being drafted in the first 5 rounds (Achane). Draft round 3 running backs at your peril.

• 38 wide receivers were drafted in the top-50 over the past 5 NFL Drafts. Of those players, 47% (18/38) are currently being drafted in the first 7 rounds of fantasy drafts. (In fact, these starter-worthy wideouts were all taken in the top-40 of the NFL draft, so that threshold may be even more meaningful than top-50 at this position). If we expand to 12 rounds to account for players who are primary fantasy backups, the hit rate climbs to 66%.

• Conversely, there were 35 wide receivers selected in picks 51-100 over that timeframe. Only 5 of those players, 14% of the total, are being drafted as starters. Those players are Nico Collins, Alec Pierce, George Pickens, Michael Wilson, and Rashee Rice. If we expand to 12 rounds to account for players who are primary fantasy backups, we add just one player to the list (Josh Downs). This minimally raises the hit rate, to 17%. So at wide receiver, you are 3x more likely to get a starting-caliber receiver out of a top 50 draft pick than one who was drafted in picks 51-100. The data shows that your chance of finding a fantasy starter at wide receiver is basically a coin flip if he was drafted in the top 50. But more than 80% of your wide receivers will bust if they were drafted from picks 51-100.

• 11 tight ends were drafted in the top-50 picks from 2021-2025. Five of these 11 (45%) are being drafted in the first seven rounds of fantasy drafts. They generally comprise a “who’s who” of fantasy tight ends, and include the likes of Brock Bowers, Colston Loveland, Tyler Warren, Kyle Pitts, and Sam LaPorta.

• On the flip side, there were 14 tight ends drafted from picks 51-100 during that span. Only 3 of those players - Trey McBride, Harold Fannin, and Tucker Kraft - are being drafted in the first 7 rounds, which is a 21% success rate. While not as pronounced as the differences at running back and wide receiver, fantasy managers are still more than twice as likely to find a fantasy starter at tight end in the top 50 picks than in picks 51-100. Also, I find it interesting that of the hits in picks 51-100, not a single one of these tight ends went to school in a Power 4 conference. McBride went to Colorado State (Pac-12), Fannin went to Bowling Green (Mid-American Conference), and Kraft went to South Dakota State (Missouri Valley Football Conference, FCS).

In a nutshell, here is what the data has revealed: Nearly all of the Top-50 draft picks at running back will be fantasy starters. A little less than half of the wide receivers and tight ends will be.

But amongst the guys chosen at picks 51-100, only about 1 in 5 running backs and tight ends will end up being fantasy starters for you, and only 1 or 2 wide receivers out of every 10 will be. Maximize your odds. Focus on the guys who were drafted earlier. They are more likely to pan out for your fantasy team.
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A complete dataset on all the players who were considered for this study follows below. Players in bold italics are considered “hits,” i.e., those who are being drafted in the top 7 rounds of half-point PPR leagues on Sleeper as of July 28, 2026. Players are listed by name, draft year, NFL draft pick, and current Sleeper ADP.

Running Backs Taken Top-50 (12 backs)
- Ashton Jeanty (2025, 6th overall) - 1.12 ADP
- Omarion Hampton (2025, 22nd overall) - 2.03
- Quinshon Judkins (2025, 36th overall) - 5.02
- TreVeyon Henderson (2025, 38th overall) - 4.07
- Jonathon Brooks (2024, 46th overall) - 10.03
- Bijan Robinson (2023, 8th overall) - 1.01
- Jahmyr Gibbs (2023, 12th overall) - 1.02
- Breece Hall (2022, 36th overall) - 3.07
- Kenneth Walker (2022, 41st overall) - 2.10
- Najee Harris (2021, 24th overall) - 21.03
- Travis Etienne (2021, 25th overall) - 4.04
- Javonte Williams (2021, 35th overall) - 3.08

Running Backs Taken Picks 51-100 (15 backs)
- R.J. Harvey (2025, 60th overall) - 6.11
- Kaleb Johnson (2025, 83rd overall) - 17.07
- Trey Benson (2024, 66th overall) - 16.05
- Blake Corum (2024, 83rd overall) - 8.07
- MarShawn Lloyd (2024, 88th overall) - Undrafted
- Zach Charbonnet (2023, 52nd overall) - 11.05
- Kendre Miller (2023, 71st overall) - 18.02
- Tyjae Spears (2023, 81st overall) - 13.04
- De’Von Achane (2023, 84th overall) - 2.02
- Tank Bigsby (2023, 88th overall) - 15.10
- James Cook (2022, 63rd overall) - 1.09
- Rachaad White (2022, 91st overall) - 10.11
- Tyrion Davis-Price (2022, 93rd overall) - Undrafted
- Brian Robinson (2022, 98th overall) - 12.06
- Trey Sermon (2021, 88th overall) - Undrafted

 Wide Receivers Taken Top-50 (38 WRs)
- Tetairoa McMillan (2025, 8th overall) - 3.09
- Emeka Egbuka (2025, 19th overall) - 4.09
- Matthew Golden (2025, 23rd overall) - 12.02
- Jayden Higgins (2025, 34th overall) - 11.09
- Luther Burden (2025, 39th overall) - 4.11
- Marvin Harrison Jr. (2024, 4th overall) - 7.04
- Malik Nabers (2024, 6th overall) - 3.12
- Rome Odunze (2024, 9th overall) - 6.02
- Brian Thomas Jr. (2024, 23rd overall) - 6.06
- Xavier Worthy (2024, 28th overall) - 11.01
- Ricky Pearsall (2024, 31st overall) - 8.08
- Xavier Legette (2024, 32nd overall) - Undrafted
- Keon Coleman (2024, 33rd overall) - 19.12
- Ladd McConkey (2024, 34th overall) - 4.06
- Ja’Lynn Polk (2024, 37th overall) - Undrafted
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (2023, 20th overall) - 1.07
- Quentin Johnston (2023, 21st overall) - 9.08
- Zay Flowers (2023, 22nd overall) - 4.10
- Jordan Addison (2023, 23rd overall) - 9.03
- Jonathan Mingo (2023, 39th overall) - Undrafted
- Jayden Reed (2023, 50th overall) - 10.02
- Drake London (2022, 8th overall) - 2.04
- Garrett Wilson (2022, 10th overall) - 3.11
- Chris Olave (2022, 11th overall) - 3.06
- Jameson Williams (2022, 12th overall) - 5.04
- Jahan Dotson (2022, 16th overall) - Undrafted
- Treylon Burks (2022, 18th overall) - Undrafted
- Christian Watson (2022, 34th overall) - 6.04
- Wan’Dale Robinson (2022, 43rd overall) - 9.06
- John Metchie III (2022, 44th overall) - Undrafted
- Tyquan Thornton (2022, 50th overall) - Undrafted
- Ja’Marr Chase (2021, 5th overall) - 1.03
- Jaylen Waddle (2021, 6th overall) - 5.01
- DeVonta Smith (2021, 10th overall) - 4.02
- Kadarius Toney (2021, 20th overall) - Undrafted
- Rashod Bateman (2021, 27th overall) - 19.09
- Elijah Moore (2021, 34th overall) - Undrafted
- Rondale Moore (2021, 49th overall) - Undrafted

Wide Receivers Taken Picks 51-100 (35 WRs)
- Tre Harris (2025, 55th overall) - 16.08
- Jack Bech (2025, 58th overall) - 20.04
- Kyle Williams (2025, 69th overall) - 18.07
- Isaac TeSlaa (2025, 70th overall) - 16.12
- Pat Bryant (2025, 74th overall) - 18.01
- Jaylin Noel (2025, 79th overall) - 17.12
- Savion Williams (2025, 87th overall) - Undrafted
- Adonai Mitchell (2024, 52nd overall) - 16.01
- Malachi Corley (2024, 65th overall) - Undrafted
- Jermaine Burton (2024, 80th overall) - Undrafted
- Roman Wilson (2024, 84th overall) - Undrafted
- Jalen McMillan (2024, 92nd overall) - 14.12
- Luke McCaffrey (2024, 100th overall) - Undrafted
- Rashee Rice (2023, 55th overall) - 3.01
- Marvin Mims (2023, 63rd overall) - 18.03
- Tank Dell (2023, 69th overall) - 17.06
- Jalin Hyatt (2023, 73rd overall) - 25.12
- Cedric Tillman (2023, 74th overall) - Undrafted
- Josh Downs (2023, 79th overall) - 11.04
- Michael Wilson (2023, 94th overall) - 7.11
- Tre Tucker (2023, 100th overall) - 17.04
- George Pickens (2022, 52nd overall) - 3.05
- Alec Pierce (2022, 53rd overall) - 7.09
- Skyy Moore (2022, 54th overall) - Undrafted
- Velus Jones (2022, 71st overall) - Undrafted
- Jalen Tolbert (2022, 88th overall) - Undrafted
- David Bell (2022, 99th overall) - Undrafted
- D’Wayne Eskridge (2021, 56th overall) - Undrafted
- Tutu Atwell (2021, 57th overall) - Undrafted
- Terrace Marshall (2021, 59th overall) - Undrafted
- Josh Palmer (2021, 77th overall) - Undrafted
- Dyami Brown (2021, 82nd overall) - Undrafted
- Amari Rodgers (2021, 85th overall) - Undrafted
- Nico Collins (2021, 89th overall) - 2.09
- Anthony Schwartz (2021, 91st overall) - Undrafted

Tight Ends Taken Top-50 (11 TEs)
- Colston Loveland (2025, 10th overall) - 4.08
- Tyler Warren (2025, 14th overall) - 5.03
- Mason Taylor (2024, 42nd overall) - 19.04
- Terrance Ferguson (2025, 46th overall) - 13.12
- Elijah Arroyo (2025, 50th overall) - Undrafted
- Brock Bowers (2024, 13th overall) - 2.07
- Dalton Kincaid (2023, 25th overall) - 8.12
- Sam LaPorta (2023, 34th overall) - 7.07
- Michael Mayer (2023, 35th overall) - Undrafted
- Luke Musgrave (2023, 42nd overall) - Undrafted
- Kyle Pitts (2021, 4th overall) - 7.03 

 Tight Ends Taken Picks 51-100 (14 TEs)
- Harold Fannin (2025, 67th overall) - 6.08
- Ben Sinnott (2024, 53rd overall) - Undrafted
- Tip Reiman (2024, 82nd overall) - Undrafted
- Luke Schoonmaker (2023, 58th overall) - Undrafted
- Brenton Strange (2023, 61st overall) - 11.08
- Tucker Kraft (2023, 78th overall) - 6.09
- Darnell Washington (2023, 93rd overall) - Undrafted
- Trey McBride (2022, 55th overall) - 2.06
- Jelani Woods (2022, 73rd overall) - Undrafted
- Greg Dulcich (2022, 80th overall) - Undrafted
- Pat Freiermuth (2021, 55th overall) - Undrafted
- Hunter Long (2021, 81st overall) - Undrafted
- Tommy Tremble (2021, 83rd overall) - Undrafted
- Tre’ McKitty (2021, 97th overall) - Undrafted